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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Oct 14

The Upper Trough Currently Over The Southwest States Will Steadily
Move Northeastward To The Central Rockies Early Monday...Eventually
Decelerating As It Begins To Close-Off As It Reaches The Middle Mo
River Valley Monday Night. An Associated Cold Front Will Spread
East-Southeastward Across The Central/Southern Plains And Lower/ Middle Mo Valley...Accelerating Southeastward Monday Night As It Overtakes A High Plains Surface Trough/Dryline.

Central Plains...

In Advance Of The Approaching Upper Trough...Strong Southerly
Low-Level Jet Aided Moisture Transport Will Lead To A Prevalence Of
Cloud Cover And Scattered To Numerous Showers And Tstms Across Much Of The Region Monday Morning...A Few Of Which Could Be Strong Across The Central High Plains Vicinity.

On The West-Southwestern Fringes Of This Early Day Activity...Upper Dry Slot-Aided Insolation Should Help To Destabilize The Boundary Layer Ahead Of The Eastward-Advancing Front Across The Central High Plains. Presuming This Scenario...A Near-Cyclone Plume Of Steepening Lapse Rates In The Presence Of Ample /For The Season/ Boundary Layer Moisture /Mostly 50s F Surface Dewpoints/ Could Allow Mlcape To Reach As High As 750-1000 J/Kg Monday Afternoon. This Would Be Within A Narrow Spatial Near-Surface Low/Pre-Frontal Corridor Across Western Portions Of Neb/Ks Into Far Northwest Ok.

Thus...Thinking Is That Sufficient Instability Will Exist In The Presence Of A Strong Deep Tropospheric Wind Field /40-50 Kt Of Effective Shear/ For Some Low-Topped Surface Based Severe Tstms Monday Afternoon. Such Initial Development Is Most Probable Near The Surface Low/Adjacent Front-Dryline Intersection Across Western
Neb/Northwest Ks...With Subsequent Development/Expansion As A
Convective Line Across Additional Parts Of Western Ks/Perhaps
Northwest Ok By Early Monday Evening.

Aside From A Severe Hail/Wind Risk...A Brief Tornado Or Two May Be Possible With Initial Surface-Based Development. Beyond Early Evening...A Nocturnally Stabilizing Boundary Layer...In Addition To Poorer Lapse Rates Aloft Across The South-Central Plains...Suggest A Diminishing/Only Limited Severe Risk By The Late Evening Hours Across The Region.


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