Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Nov 26

Synopsis...

A Cold Front Will Extend From Cntrl Tx Into Cntrl Ar And To The Oh
River By Late Afternoon...And Will Surge Swd To A Tx Coast To Srn
Appalachian Line By Tue Morning. This Front Will Be Driven Swd By
Strong Nwly Flow Across The Cntrl U.S. Where An Upper Trough Axis
Will Be At 00z. A Srn Stream Shortwave Will Also Be Moving Across
Nrn Mexico...Arriving In Cntrl/Ern Tx During The Evening.

Ahead Of The Cold Front...Heating Will Lead To Weak Low Pressure
Over Cntrl And Ern Tx...Where Sswly Surface Winds Will Help Maintain
Dewpoints In The 60s F. This...Along With Cool Air Aloft And Forcing
Along The Front Should Result In Scattered Thunderstorms...Some
Severe From E Cntrl Tx To The Ms River.

E Tx Into La...Srn Ar...Wrn Ms...

Areas Of Rain And Elevated Thunderstorms Are Expected To Increase By Mid Morning From Srn Ar Into Ms...But These Should Not Be Severe. Daytime Heating And Cooling Profiles Aloft Will Lead To Mucape On The Order Of 1500-2000 J/Kg From E Cntrl Tx Into Nrn La.

With Full Heating And Swly Winds Over Cntrl Tx...This Is Where The Low Level Lapse Rate Plume Will Be Pointed. Thus...Initial Development Is Expected There...Possibly High Based. Further Development Will Then Occur Newd Along The Advancing Cold Front.

Deep Layer Shear Will Be Most Favorable For Supercells Across Ern Tx And Into Srn Ar And La...Where Midlevel Winds Will Be Due Wly.

Here...Supercells Capable Of Large Hail Will Be Likely. Combined
Parameters In Place Will Generally Favor Maximum Hail Sizes Around
Golf Ball...Perhaps As High As 2.00". However...A Subtle Veer-Back
Wind Profile In The 700-500 Mb Layer May Have An Adverse Impact On Storm Structure. Regardless...Severe Hail Greater Than 1.00" Is
Likely.

Damaging Winds May Also Occur...Especially With The Activity That
Forms Over Cntrl Tx In The Heat. These Storms Will Likely Persist
And Propagate Esewd...Possibly Affecting The Houston Area After
Midnight.

Overall...Low Level Shear Will Be Marginal For Tornadoes...With Only
A Low Threat With The Initial Development Before It Merges Into A
Line.


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