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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon May 13

An Initially Amplified Large Scale Pattern Will Trend More Progressive /Less Amplified On Monday. This Will Be As An Eastern States Upper Trough Shifts Eastward Toward The Western Atlantic...While A Strong Polar Jet/Amplifying Shortwave Trough Moves Over The Pacific Northwest/Northern Intermountain West...Leading To Increasing Deep Convective Potential Over The Northern Intermountain Region Monday.

Dry/Stable Conditions Will Prevail In Most Areas East Of The Rockies ...Although Some Tstms Will Remain Possible Near A Slow Moving Front Across South Fl.

Northern Intermountain Region...

Aforementioned Amplifying Shortwave Trough/Jet Streak Will
Overspread The Region Monday Afternoon/Night In Conjunction With An Eastward Moving Cold Front. With Modest Moisture Ahead Of The Front /Precipitable Water Values As High As 0.60-0.75 Inches/ ...Increasing Forcing For Ascent/Terrain Influences Will Contribute To A Diurnal Upswing In Tstms Monday Afternoon...Initially Across Portions Of Northeast Ore/Far Southeast Wa Into Northern Id/Western Mt. Given Sufficient Moisture/Instability...Strong Deep Layer Southwesterly Winds Will Allow For Some Sustained Storms Capable Of Severe Hail And/Or Wind.

Storms May Develop East Of The Higher Terrain And Reach Portions Of Central/East-Central Mt By Evening...With A Potential For Damaging Winds Continuing /At Least For A Time/ Into A Well-Mixed Boundary Layer.

South Fl...

The Boundary Layer Will Heat And Should Become Unstable By Afternoon To The South Of A Southward Advancing Cold Front. While Lapse Rates Aloft Will Likely Weaken Into Monday...Sufficient Heating /Steepening Low-Level Lapse Rates May Account For A Few Stronger /Possibly Severe Tstms Especially For The Southeast Fl Peninsula.


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