Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Mar 4

A Progressive/Amplified Longwave Pattern Will Continue Over The
Conus Through Monday.

A Shortwave Trough Currently Over The Canadian/Northern Conus Rockies Will Amplify/Dig East-Southeastward Over The Northern/ Central Plains To Upper Midwest By Monday Night...While A Cold Front Surges Southeastward Across The South-Central Conus.

Mid-South/Tn Valley...

Tstms Are Expected To Increase After Dark Near/Just Behind The
East-Southeast Moving Cold Front...With Aid Of Increasing Warm
Advection And Moistening Near/Above The Surface.

Such Development Should Initially Occur Across The Ozarks Monday Evening With Subsequent East-Southeastward Development Into The Tn Valley Overnight/Early Tuesday.

While Some Small Hail May Be Possible Given The Steepness Of The Lapse Rates...A Modest Moisture And Weak Cape Environment /A Few Hundred J Per Kg At Most/ Is Expected To Preclude Severe Hail.

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