Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Mar 18

A Negatively Tilted Upper Trough Axis Will Extend From The Upper Ms
Valley Sewd Into The Oh Valley By 18z And Will Rapidly Move Newd
Across The Great Lakes By Evening. However...A Secondary Jet Max
Will Also Strengthen Overnight Into The Mid Ms Valley...And Will Result In Widespread Height Falls From The Oh/Tn Valleys Into The Sern States.

Ky/Tn/Ms/Al/Ga/Fl Panhandle...

A Surface Low Is Forecast To Move From Srn Il/Wrn Ky Newd Into
Indiana Between 12-18z...With A Cold Front Trailing Swwd Into
Tn...Nrn Ms And Srn Ar.

Strong Forcing For Ascent Will Accompany This Low And The Nrn Portion Of The Cold Front In Association With The Negative Tilt Shortwave Trough.

Widespread Rain And Thunderstorms Should Be Ongoing Across Nrn Ms/Al...Tn...And Ky As A Result. With Relatively Strong Mean Flow...Some Of This Convection May Be Severe With Mainly Damaging Winds And Marginal Hail.

As Forcing Lifts Newd...Attention Will Turn To The Trailing Cold Front And Warm Sector Across Ms/Al/Ga/Fl.

Indications Are That Low Clouds Should Clear And Allow For Heating And Destabilization To Occur...With Low Level Lapse Rate Plume Centered Over Ms.

Models Offer A Menagerie Of Qpf Solutions Throughout The Day...But The General Consensus Is For Storms To Develop Along And Possibly Ahead Of The Weak Front/Low Pressure Trough From Nrn Al Into Ms And Perhaps As Far Sw As Ern La.

Although Low Level Winds Will Be Veered...Long Hodographs Will Favor Supercells Capable Of Large Hail. Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Also Be Present...And With Sufficient Low Level Moisture A Few
Storms May Be Capable Of Significant Hail Over 2 Inches In Diameter.
Veered Low Level Flow Suggests Tornado Threat Will Be Marginal... But Non-Zero For Rightward Moving Supercells. The Presence Of
Substantial Li/S May Also Tend To Compensate For The Marginal Low
Level Shear. The Most Favorable Shear For A Couple Tornadoes Will Be Over Cntrl And Srn Al.

An Unstable And Relatively Uncapped Air Mass Will Remain Along The Cntrl Gulf Coast And Across The Fl Panhandle. Isolated Severe Activity May Thus Persist As It Travels Sewd Out Of Al. A Few Supercells May Also Exist Along The Front Over The Gulf Of Mexico ...And Could Threaten Portions Of The Fl Coast Late.

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