Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Jul 22

Upper Ms Valley...

An Upper-Level Trough Will Move Ewd Across The Upper Ms Valley On
Monday. At The Sfc...A Low Will Move Ewd Across Nrn Mn With A
Trailing Cold Front Advancing Sewd Across Cntrl And Srn Mn Into Nrn
Wi And Nw Ia.

The Nam/Gfs/Ecmwf Models Suggest That Elevated Thunderstorms May Be Ongoing Along The Front At The Beginning Of The Period. The Models Develop New Thunderstorms Along And Ahead Of The
Front Early Monday Afternoon With Convection Moving Sewd Across The Upper Ms Valley During The Late Afternoon And Early Evening.

Forecast Soundings At 21z For Minneapolis Show Sfc Dewpoints In The Upper 60s To Near 70 F Along With Mlcape Values In The 2000 To 2500 J/Kg Range. This Combined With 40 To 50 Kt Of Deep Layer Shear And Steep Mid-Level Lapse Rates Should Be Supportive Of Supercells With Large Hail. Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates And Abundant Low-Level Moisture May Also Result In A Wind Damage Threat Especially If A Transition To Linear Mode Can Occur. The Severe Threat Should Extend Swwd Into Nw Ia Where The Models Develop The Strongest Instability So Will Extend The Slight Risk Into That Area.

Cntrl Plains...

Northwest Flow Will Be In Place Across The Cntrl Plains Monday As A
Sharply Defined Cold Front Advances Sewd Across Neb Into Nrn Ks. The Models Suggest That Storms Will Initiate Along The Front With
Several Clusters Of Convection Moving Sewd Across Ern Neb And Nrn Ks Late Monday Afternoon. Convective Coverage May Continue To Increase Into Monday Evening As A Low-Level Jet Strengthens Across Ok And Ks.

Forecast Soundings At 00z/Tue For Kansas City And Salina Show Sfc
Dewpoints In The Upper 60s F With Mlcape Values From 1500 To 2000 J/Kg. In Addition...Substantial Directional Shear Is Forecast From The Sfc To 500 Mb Which Should Result In About 40 Kt Of Deep Layer Shear. This Combined With Steep Lapse Rates From The Sfc To 500 Mb And High Lcl Heights Should Result In High Based Storms With A Severe Threat. Sfc Temp-Dewpoint Spreads Are Forecast To Be Greater Than 30 Degrees Which May Help Accelerate Downdraft Speeds Resulting In An Isolated Wind Damage Threat With The Better Organized Line Segments.

Nrn High Plains...

West To Northwest Flow Will Be In Place Across The Nrn High Plains
With A Sfc Trough Located Sewd Across Mt Into Ne Wy.

Sfc Winds Should Be Sely Across The Nrn High Plains With An Northwest To Southeast Oriented Axis Of Low-Level Moisture Located Along The Sfc Trough. The Models Suggest That Isolated Thunderstorms May Develop Along The Corridor Of Instability During The Late Afternoon. Forecast Soundings At 00z/Tue Across Ern Mt Sewd Toward The Rapid City Area Show Weak Instability...Strong Deep Layer Shear And Steep Lapse Rates. This May Be Enough For Marginal Wind Damage And Hail Threat.


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