Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Jul 1

An Upper Trough Will Generally Remain Stationary Over The Oh Valley
Through The Day 2 Period...With Minor Impulses Rotating Around Its
Periphery During The Day.

One Shortwave Impulse Will Enter Appalachia By Late Afternoon... While A Second Moves Swd Over The Great Plains During The Afternoon And Aids In Enhancing Nly Upper Flow Over The Cntrl/Srn High Plains. Meanwhile Over The Wrn Conus...An Upper Ridge Will Amplify From The Great Basin Toward The Canadian Rockies. At The Surface...High Pressure Will Extend Swd From Ontario Into Tx...With Upslope Flow Occurring Over The High Plains/Srn Rockies. Over The Ern Conus...A Weak Frontal Boundary Will Extend From The Mid Atlantic Region Swwd Across The Nwrn Gulf Of Mexico.

Ern Al...Cntrl/Nrn Ga to Cntrl Appalachians And Nrn Oh Valley...

Upper Trough Centered Over The Oh Valley Will Focus A Belt Of 30-40
Kt Midlevel Swlys From Al/Ga Newd Into New England. Though Low-Level Flow Is Forecast To Be Weak...The Strong Flow Aloft Will Yield Long Hodographs Favorable For Organized Multicell Thunderstorms. Primary Limiting Factor For Severe Storms Will Be Weak Buoyancy...With Temperatures In The 80s And Dewpoints In The 60s/70s Combined With Poor Lapse Rates Resulting In Mlcape Values From 500-1000 J/Kg. Pockets Of Stronger Surface Heating Will Likely Aid In Localized Areas Of Enhanced Severe Weather Potential...Though The Threat For Damaging Winds/Large Hail Will Still Be Marginal.


Low-Level Ely Winds Are Forecast To Occur Invof The Srn Rockies In
Co/Nm During Monday Afternoon...Which Will Aid In Maintaining Low
50s Dewpoints Over The Area. In Addition...A Minor Upper Impulse
Moving S Over The Great Plains Will Be Associated With A 50 Kt
Midlevel Nly Speed Max Located Over Ern Co/Nm During The Late
Afternoon/Evening. This Will Yield Long Straight Hodographs Over The Region Supportive Of Splitting Supercells. However...The Combination Of A Cool Boundary Layer And Marginal Low/Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Result In Weak Buoyancy /Mucape Values Around 500 J Per Kg/...Which Is Expected To Preclude A Severe Weather Threat Attm.

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