Latest Short Range Model Guidance...Specifically The 06/00z Nam... Suggest Swrn U.S. Digging Upper Low Will Be Considerably Farther West Across Nrn Mexico At The End Of The Day2 Period Than Earlier Forecast.
With More Meaningful Height Falls Not Expected To Spread Into South Tx Until Later In The Day3 Period It Appears Weak Warm Advection Will Be The Primary Forcing Mechanism For Convective Development Along/North Of Advancing Coastal/Warm Front.
At This Time It Appears The Prospect For Severe Sfc-Based Tstm Activity Will Be Too Low To Warrant Severe Probs Along The Lower Tx Coast As Earlier Indicated.
Isolated/Sct Tstms May Develop Within Exit Region Of Digging Jet
Near The Mexican Border Across Sern Az/Srn Nm Into Far West Tx As
Steepening Mid Level Lapse Rates Spread Across This Region.
Otherwise Elevated Buoyancy Is Expected To Develop Across Much Of
Cntrl/Scntrl Tx Atop Modifying Boundary Layer Airmass. While Cloud
Layer Shear Will Be More Than Adequate For Sustained Rotating
Updrafts Across Tx Forecast Elevated Instability Does Not Appear
Adequate To Warrant Severe Probs At This Time...Although Small Hail
Could Accompany The Strongest Updrafts.
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