Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Jan 28

Large Scale Pattern Amplification Is Expected On Monday... Highlighted By The Evolution Of A Positively Tilted Longwave Trough Over The Rockies/Northern Plains By Early Tuesday.

Surface Cyclogenesis Is Expected To Occur Especially Into Monday
Night...With A Surface Low Advancing East-Northeastward Across The
Central Plains To Upper Midwest In Tandem With A Southeastward
Moving Cold Front Across The North-Central Conus.

Farther South...An Increasingly Moist Airmass Will Continue To Become Established Across The South-Central Conus...With Upper 50s And Lower/Some Middle 60s F Surface Dewpoints Across Parts Of Tx/Ok And The Lower Ms Valley Into The Ozarks.

Lower/Middle Mo Valley And Midwest...

After A Convective Lull For Much Of The Day...A Nocturnally
Increasing Low Level Jet And Associated Warm Advection/Moisture
Regime Across The Region Should Account For An Increase In Isolated Or Perhaps Scattered Tstms Monday Night/Early Tuesday. Any Severe Hail Threat With This Overnight/Early Morning Activity Should Be Inhibited By Marginal/Weak Instability.

Ok/North Tx...

Have Introduced A Low Probability For Tstms Across Parts Of The
Region. Cannot Entirely Discount That A Few Tstms Could Develop In
Vicinity Of The Modestly Convergent Dryline Monday Afternoon/Early
Evening Provided Sufficient Heating. However...More Probable Will Be
For The Possibility Of At Least Isolated Tstms To Develop Late
Monday Night/Early Tuesday In Association With An Increasing Warm
Advection Regime/Cold Front Arrival As The Southwest States Upper
Trough Approaches.

Even Should Near-Surface Based Tstms Develop In The Presence Of Relatively Strong Vertical Shear...Updraft Vigor Should Be Tempered By Relatively Poor Lapse Rates Aloft And Weak Overall Buoyancy. Thus...Severe Tstms Are Not Currently Anticipated.


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