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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Feb 25

Lower Ms Valley/Gulf Coast States...

An Upper-Level Low Will Move Across The Srn Plains On Monday As A
Well-Defined Mid-Level Jet Translates Ewd Through The Base Of The
Upper-Level System.

At The Sfc...A Low Will Gradually Deepen And Move Ewd Along The Red River At The Tx-Ok State-Line.

At Daybreak...A Cold Front Should Be In Place Extending From The Sfc
Low Swd Across North Tx Into The Tx Hill Country Along Which
Thunderstorm Activity Should Be Ongoing. The Greatest Concentration Of Storms Should Exist In North Tx And Srn Ok Along A Tongue Of Low-Level Moisture And West Of A Low-Level Jet.

The Cold Front Will Advance Quickly Ewd Across East Tx During The Morning And Into The Lower Ms Valley Monday Afternoon.

This Boundary Will Focus Convective Development But Numerous Thunderstorms Should Also Develop Well Ahead Of The Front Across A Broad Warm Sector Extending From La Ewd Across Srn Ms And Srn Al. Squall-Line Development Will Be Possible Across The Lower Ms Valley And Cntrl Gulf Coast States Late Monday Afternoon.

This Linear Convective System Should Persist Into The Evening As A Low-Level Jet Moves Nwd From The Nrn Gulf Of Mexico Into The Cntrl Gulf Coast States.

By 06z On Tuesday...Model Forecasts Suggest A Well-Developed Linear Mcs Will Be Located From The Tn Valley Extending Swd Across Al Into The Wrn Fl Panhandle.

Forecast Soundings Ahead Of The Cold Front In The Lower Ms Valley
Monday Afternoon Develop Moderate Instability Across Much Of La And Srn Ms In Response To Strong Warm Advection And Sfc Heating. Sbcape Values Could Reach 1500 J/Kg From South Of Jackson Ms To The New Orleans Vicinity. In Addition...0-6 Km Shear Values Are Forecast To Increase Into The 50 To 60 Kt Range Across Much Of The Lower Ms Valley As The Mid-Level Jet Approaches From The West.

This Environment Along With 20 To 30 Kt Of Low-Level Shear And A Moist Boundary Layer /Sfc Dewpoints In The Upper 60s F/ Should Be
Favorable For Severe Storms And Possibly Rotating Storms.

The Dominant Storm Mode Could Determine The Type And Magnitude Of The Severe Threat. A Purely Linear Convective System Would Favor Wind Damage As The Greatest Threat. An Isolated Tornado And Hail Threat Would Be Possible With Rotating Cells Elements Embedded In The Line. If More Cells Develop Well Ahead Of The Line Across The Warm Sector And Remain Discrete...Then The Tornado Threat Could Be Greater.

At This Point...It Appears That The Greatest Severe Threat Will Exist
Across Se La...Srn Ms And Far Srn Al Where The Combination Of
Instability...Shear And Moisture Will Be Maximized Near Peak Heating
Monday Afternoon.

Will Add A 30 Percent Severe Probability Across The Lower Ms Valley.


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