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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Feb 18

A Fast-Moving/Vigorous Short Wave Trough Across The Nrn Rockies And Great Basin This Morning Will Develop East Over The Plains... Midwest...And Great Lakes From Monday Into Tuesday.

The Strongest 500mb Height Falls With This System...On The Order Of 150m Per 12h...Are Forecast To Spread From The Cntrl/Nrn Plains To Upper Midwest Through Monday Evening And Support A Surface Low Tracking Esewd From Nd/Mn To The Great Lakes. Lee-Side Surface Pressure Falls Ahead Of The Approaching Upper Trough... And Strong High Pressure Over The Tn Valley/Gulf Coast...Will Support The Intensification Of A Broad Sswly Low Level Jet Through Tonight With 50-70kt 850mb Flow From Nern Tx To Mo By Daybreak Monday.

This Increase In Low Level Flow Will Enhance Moisture Transport Amidst A Developing Warm Conveyor Belt Ahead Of The Upper Trough And Cold Front. However...Antecedent Moisture Is Currently Quite Meager Over The Source Regions Of The Lower Rio Grande And Wrn Gulf. Thus...Airmass Modification And Destabilization From Nern Tx Across The Arklatex Should Be Limited And Will Likely Temper Severe Storm Development And Coverage During Monday Afternoon.

Nern Tx/Arklatex...

As Cold Front Spreads Esewd From Ks/Ok...And Possible Dryline
Sharpens Near Red River/Ncntrl Tx...An Axis Of Increasing Lift And
Moistening Is Forecast To Evolve From Nern Tx Newd Across Ar.

Most Guidance Suggests Surface Dewpoints Near/Ahead Of Front/ Dryline Triple Point May Reach Mid 50s F And Support A Narrow Corridor Of Mucape Possibly Approaching 500 J/Kg Given Relatively Warm Boundary Layer And Cooler Temps Aloft.

Bulk Of Convection Is Likely To Remain Displaced From Greater Potential Instability As Stronger Mass Inflow And Forcing Move North/Away From Recovering True Warm Sector.

There May Be A Narrow Window In Time/Space...Generally Along A Prx To Txk Line During The Late Afternoon/Early Evening...When More Vigorous Surface-Based Convection Could Exist Within A Sufficiently Sheared Regime For A Couple Of Severe Wind/Hail Events.

Any Threat Should Diminish Thereafter As Storms Encounter Weaker Instability With Ewd/Newd Extent.


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