Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Feb 11


An Upper Low Will Progress Ewd Across The Great Lakes With Midlevel Speed Max Shifting From The Oh Valley Newd Across Srn New England. A Broad Belt Of Swly Flow Aloft Will Remain Over The Srn Plains And Sern States...While Another Shortwave Trough Digs Swd Across The Four Corners Area During The Day And Into W Tx Overnight.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Should Extend From The Wrn Carolinas
Into Srn Al/Ms/La And Into Deep S Tx Around 18z. While The Carolinas
Portion Of The Front Will Continue To Move E...Wrn Portions Will
Become Nearly Stationary Along The Gulf Coast.

The Front Will Be A Focus For Scattered Thunderstorms During The Day From Srn Ms/Al Ewd Into Ga...While Another Threat Develops Overnight Across Tx As The Four Corners Trough Rotates Ewd.

Srn La...Ms...Al...Ga...Fl Panhandle...

Storms Should Be Ongoing Along The Front From Srn Ms Into Srn Al And Wrn Ga In The Morning...Possibly With A Marginal Severe Wind Threat.

Deep Layer Shear Will Be Oriented Parallel To The Boundary...And
Will Be Strong. However...Instability Will Be Weak With But Perhaps
Sufficient For A Few Small Bows.

Much Of Central/Wrn Tx...

Theta-E Advection Atop The Stable Boundary Layer Is Forecast To
Strengthen Late In The Day And Overnight In Response To The
Approaching Trough To The W. This Will Create Elevated Instability N
Of The Front With Rapid Moistening And Lift Mainly After 03z.
Forecast Soundings Show Sufficient Instability And Shear For
Elevated Supercells Capable Of Large Hail. The Most Likely Area For
Severe Should Be Over W Cntrl Tx Closest To The Upper Trough...But
Moisture For Instability Also Decreases With Wwd Extent.

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