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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Dec 3

Synopsis...

Models Continue To Show The Potential For Tstms To Develop Initially
Monday Afternoon From Far Ern Ia/Nrn Il/Sern Wi...And Persist Enewd
Monday Evening...While Also Developing Swwd Within A Relatively
Narrow Pre-Frontal Moist/Warm Air Mass.

Latest Guidance Suggests A Wwd And Ewd Expansion Of The General Tstm Area Was Warranted For This Outlook Update.

Amplification Of The Current More Zonal Upper Flow Pattern Across
The Lower 48 States Is Expected During D2 As A Shortwave Trough
Moves Through The Plains Toward The Ms River Valley.

In The Low Levels...A Dry Line Is Expected To Extend Sswwd From Nrn-Nern Ks Through Wrn Ok And W Tx At 12z Mon. This Boundary Will Move Ewd And Should Be Overtaken By A Progressive Cold Front As This Latter Feature Reaches Central Wi...Ia/Il Border To Central Mo...Nern Ok And Nw Tx By Late Mon Afternoon. Meanwhile...A Warm Front Will Lift Nwd From The Oh Valley Region Through The Lower Great Lakes And Parts Of Pa/Ny.

Far Ern Ia/Nwrn-Nrn Il/Srn Wi...

A Mild Late Fall Pre-Frontal Air Mass Is Forecast Into This Region
On Mon. Although Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Be Modest /6.5-7 C Per
Km/...The Above Normal Surface Temperatures And Dewpoints In The
Mid-Upper 50s Should Result In Weak Destabilization /Mlcape 500-800 J Per Kg/ By Peak Heating.

This Combined With Stronger Forcing For Ascent Expected To Spread Enewd Across The Nrn Plains To Great Lakes/Nrn Ontario This Forecast Period Suggests The Potential For Surface-Based Tstms Mid-Late Mon Afternoon...As The Cold Front Overtakes The Nrn Extent Of The Dry Line In Far Ern Ia/Srn Wi/Nwrn-Nrn Il.

While Small Hail And/Or A Stronger Wind Gust Cannot Be Ruled Out As Effective Bulk Shear Increases To 30-35 Kt...The Weak Instability And A Rather Narrow Axis Of Better Instability And Small Areal Coverage Of This Threat Precludes The Introduction Of Any Severe Probabilities At This Time.

Ern Ok/Swrn Ar/Nern Tx...

Tstm Potential Will Increase Through Mon Evening Into Mon Night From N-S From The Ozarks Toward The Arklatex Region. Weak Low Level Waa...Weak Height Falls And Greater Proximity To Better Moisture Will Support This Tstm Activity. Weak Effective Bulk Shear Should Limit Storm Organization...Though Small Hail And/Or A Stronger Wind Gust Cannot Be Ruled Out.


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