Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Dec 17


A Progressive Large Scale Pattern Will Be Prevalent Over The Conus
On Monday...With A Quasi-Focus On The East-Northeastward Progression Of A Shortwave Trough From The Ozarks To The Central/Northern Appalachians Amid Broad Cyclonic Upper Flow Accentuated By A 125+ Kt Polar Jet. A Corresponding Surface Low Should Deepen /Especially The Last Half Of The Period/ As It Develops Northeastward From The Middle Ms Valley To The Pa Vicinity/Northeast States...While The Primary Cold Front Sweeps Eastward Across Much Of The Southeast States/Carolinas And Mid-Atlantic Region Through Monday Night.

Southeast States/Carolinas...

Along And More So Ahead Of A Cold Front...Clusters/Bands Of
Showers/Tstms Will Likely Be Ongoing Monday Morning Within A
Corridor From Al/Northern Ga Northeastward Into Other Parts Of The
Southern Appalachians Vicinity. Associated With The Previously
Discussed Northeastward-Progressive Shortwave Trough/Polar Jet...A Persistent Warm Conveyor Will Contribute To The Northeastward Extension Of Showers/Tstms During The Afternoon Into Areas East Of The Appalachians Including Additional Parts Of Ga/Carolinas And Va.

As This Occurs...Lower 60s F Surface Dewpoints Will Become
Increasingly Prevalent During The Day For Ga Into Piedmont/Coastal
Portions Of The Carolinas. While Cloud Cover/Early Day Precipitation
And Weak Lapse Rates Aloft Will Hinder The Degree Of
Destabilization...Mlcape May Reach To Around 500 J/Kg Within The
Warm Sector Monday Afternoon/Evening. With Mature Storms /Especially Diurnally/ Embedded Within A Very Strong Deeper Layer Southwesterly Wind Field /50+ Kt 0-6 Km Shear/...Fast Moving Clusters/Few Supercells May Pose A Damaging Wind/Isolated Tornado Threat Across The Region.

Of Note...A Secondary Round Of Tstms /Possible Strong To Severe/ May Develop On Western Portions Of The Region...See Discussion Below.

Oh/Tn Valleys...

In The Wake Of Early Day Showers/Tstms...It Appears That A Secondary Round Of Low-Topped Tstms Will Develop Across Portions Of The Region Monday Afternoon.

This Appears Most Certain Across Portions Of Ky/Tn...But Such Low-Topped Development Could Occur As Far South As Portions Of Al.

While Low-Level Moisture/Cape Will Be Modest...Sufficient Heating/ Steepening Lapse Rates And Focused Ascent Near The Brunt Of The Shortwave Trough Will Influence Such Development. These Low-Topped Storms May Produce Hail/Gusty Winds...And The Slight Risk Has Been Expanded Into The Region.

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