Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Aug 5

Quasi-Zonal Flow Aloft Will Develop Across The Nrn Half Of The Conus On Monday As A Trough Over New England Lifts Newd Across The Canadian Maritimes...And A Second Trough Digs Swd Over The Canadian Prairie Provinces Into The Nrn Plains. As This Occurs...Belt Of 40 Kt Midlevel Wnwlys Will Become Positioned From Mt Esewd Into The Mid-Atlantic Region.

At The Surface...A Frontal Boundary Will Extend From Srn Ga Nwwd Across The Ozarks...And Then Wwd Into Wrn Ks/Ern Co. Esely Upslope Flow Will Be Present On The Cool Side Of The Boundary ...Which Will Aid In Maintaining A Moist Low-Level Airmass Over The Cntrl/Nrn High Plains.

Elsewhere...Another Area Of Weak Low Pressure And Associated Surface Wave Will Move From Srn/Cntrl Mn Into Wrn Wi During The Afternoon/Evening.

Cntrl/Nrn High Plains...

Weak Ssely Low-Level Winds Are Forecast To Maintain Dewpoints In The 50s Along And E Of A Surface Wind Shift Extending From Ern Mt Swd Into Ern Wy. With Daytime Heating...Surface Temperatures Will Rise Into The 80s And Low-Level Lapse Rates Will Steepen. This
Destabilization Combined With Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates Atop The
Moist Surface Airmass Will Yield Mlcape Values Up To 1500 J/Kg.

As A Shortwave Trough Digs Swd Into Mt During The Afternoon And
Evening...Large-Scale Ascent Is Forecast To Increase Across The
Cntrl/Nrn High Plains...Which Should Assist In Thunderstorm
Development Along The Previously Mentioned Wind Shift As Well As
Elevated Terrain Features In Mt/Wy.

Weak Low-Level Sselys Veering To 40-50 Kt In The Midlevels Will Yield Favorable Shear Profiles For Supercells Posing A Threat For Large Hail. Upscale Growth Into An Mcs Will Be Possible Over Sd And Nrn Neb After Dark...Assisted By Ascent Ahead Of The Previously Mentioned Trough...And Strengthening Low-Level Slys Above A Stabilizing Surface Airmass.

Sern Mn/Wrn Wi...Ia...

A Weak Area Of Surface Low Pressure Is Forecast To Move E Across The Srn Half Of Mn During The Afternoon. Boundary Layer Destabilization Coincident With This Feature...Combined With An Axis Of Mid/Upper 60s Dewpoints...Will Aid In Mlcape Values From 1000-2500 J/Kg.

Isolated Thunderstorms Will Be Possible Across The Area During The Afternoon...Some Which May Display Transient Supercell
Characteristics Given The Presence Of 40-50 Kt Midlevel Swly Flow
Atop Weak Low-Level Slys.

A Few Storms May Produce Isolated Instances Of Large Hail/Damaging Winds...And Perhaps A Weak/Brief Tornado If Surface Winds Can Remain Backed Near The Area Of Low Pressure Over Mn/Wrn Wi.

Cntrl Plains To The Ozark Plateau...

Surface Dewpoints In The 70s Are Probable Along A Surface Frontal
Boundary From Ks Esewd To The Ozark Plateau...And When Combined With Strong Heating...Will Favor The Development Of A Very Unstable Airmass During The Afternoon. This Environment Will Support Multicell Clusters Along The Front...Some Of Which Could Pose An Isolated Threat For Damaging Downbursts And Large Hail.


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