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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Aug 26

Nrn Plains/Upper Ms Valley/Great Lakes...

A Broad Upper-Level High Pressure Area Will Be In Place Across The
Cntrl U.S. With The Nrn Periphery Of The Ridge Located In The Upper
Ms Valley.

At The Sfc...A Low Should Be Located Across Sd With A Quasi-Stationary Frontal Boundary Extending Ewd From The Low Across Scntrl Mn And Cntrl Wi Into Lower Mi.

A Capping Inversion Should Inhibit Convective Development For Much Of The Day Across The Upper Ms Valley. The Cap Is Forecast To Weaken During The Late Afternoon With The Models Developing Thunderstorms Along The Boundary.

As Cells Increase In Coverage ...A Convective Cluster Or Line May Move Sewd Across Mn And Wi During The Early To Mid Evening... Possibly Reaching Lower Mi During The Overnight Period. Other Storms May Develop Further West In The Dakotas Near And To The North Of The Sfc Low.

Forecast Soundings At 00z/Mon Along The Instability Axis At Aberdeen
Sd...Minneapolis Mn And Green Bay Sfc Dewpoints In The Upper 60s To Near 70 F Which Should Result In Moderate Destabilization By Early To Mid Afternoon. Mlcape Is Estimated Around 2000 J/Kg Which
Combined With 0-6 Km Shear Around 30 Kt Should Be Enough For A
Severe Multicell Storms. Low-Level Lapse Rates Of 8.5 C/Km And The
Very Moist Boundary Layer Could Be Favorable For Cold Pool
Development.

In This Case...The Associated Line-Segment Would Have A Wind Damage Threat. Hail Will Also Be Possible Especially With Cells That Exhibit Rotation. Mid-Level Lapse Rates Will Likely Be The Steeper In Wcntrl Mn And The Dakotas Suggesting The Threat For Hail Will Be Greatest There.


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