The Large Scale Pattern Will Continue To Amplify Into Monday... Highlighted By An Amplifying/Southeastward-Digging Upper Trough Over The Central/Southern Rockies With A Northeastward Ejecting Polar Jet/Speed Max Toward The South-Central High Plains.
Corresponding Surface Cyclogenesis Will Occur Across The High Plains Of Eastern Co...With A Dryline Extending Southward Into Western Ok/Northwest Tx...And A Slow Moving And/Or Southward-Moving Frontal Boundary Across The North-Central Plains/Midwest.
Gradual Height Falls Will Reach The South-Central High Plains Monday Afternoon And Especially Monday Night As The Large Scale Pattern Trends More Meridional With The Exit Region Of A Moderately Strong Polar Jet Approaching The Region. Persistent Surface Cyclogenesis Across Southeast Co Will Aid The North-Northwestward Transport Of Low-Level Moisture Into The Region...With Lower 60s F Surface Dewpoints Across Northwest Tx/Western Ok/Southwest Ks To The East Of A Dryline...With A Very Quick Late Afternoon And Evening Surge /But More Modest/ Low-Level Moisture West-Northwestward Across Northwest Ks And Portions Of Eastern Co.
The Most Probable Scenario Will Be For At Least Isolated/Scattered
Storms To Develop/Increase Across Eastern Co/Western Ks Through
Mid-Late Afternoon Into Monday Evening. Farther Southeast...The
Strength Of The Elevated Mixed Layer Including Slight Warming Aloft
/A Degree Or Two From Today/ Puts Into The Question The
Likelihood/Extent Of Deep Convective Development South-Southeastward Along The Dryline Across Western Ok/Northwest Tx. That Said...At Least A Few/Relatively Isolated Tstms Are Plausible Late Monday Afternoon/Early Evening. Where Storms Do Develop/Mature Especially Monday Late Afternoon/Evening...Very Steep Lapse Rates And Increasingly Elongated Hodographs Would Highly Favor Supercells With Large Hail And A Few Tornadoes As The Primary Threats.
Later In The Evening/Overnight...A Strengthening Low Level Jet And
Corresponding Warm/Moist Advection Will Lead To More Numerous Tstms Across The Middle Mo Valley/Midwest Along/North Of The Roughly Wsw-Ene Frontal Zone. The Strongest Tstms Will Remain Capable Of Some Hail. Meanwhile...Farther South...Any Dryline/Warm Sector Activity Should Otherwise Nocturnally Diminish As Inhibition/Capping Becomes Reestablished Monday Evening.
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