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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Apr 29

An Upper-Level Trough Will Gradually Amplify Across The Northwest.
Downstream...Lower Amplitude And Weakening Disturbances Will
Progress Ewd...One Across The Upper Ms Valley/Great Lakes And
Another From The Cntrl/Srn Appalachians Across The
Mid/South-Atlantic Coast.

At The Surface...A Cold Front Associated With The Lead Impulse Over The N-Cntrl Conus Will Undergo Frontolysis. A Stronger Cold Front Associated With The Amplifying Nwrn Trough Will Accelerate And Sweep Across The Nrn Plains...Likely Reaching The Upper Ms Valley To Cntrl High Plains By Early Tue.

Parts Of The Upper/Mid-Ms Valley...

Model Guidance /Especially Sref...Nam And Gfs/ May Be Grossly Overdone With The Degree Of Low-Level Moisture Return Into The Midwest By Mon Afternoon.

Forecast Soundings From These Models Indicate Mean Mixing Ratios
Reaching 12-14 G/Kg With Minimal Inhibition Prior To Depicted
Convective Initiation Along The Decaying Front.

With Only A Moderate Swly Llj On Sun Night...And 12z Raobs This Morning Indicating Mean Mixing Ratios Of That Magnitude Confined To Deep S Tx And Across The Lower Ms Valley...It Appears A Bit Far-Fetched That This Amplitude Of Moisture Return Will Be Fully Realized. In Addition...The Frontolytic Nature Of The Boundary Along With Waa At 700 Mb Likely Maintaining A Capping Inversion Will Probably Mitigate Diurnal Tstm Development To Along The Leading Edge Of The Cap. This Type Of Scenario Appears Fairly Represented In 12z Convection-Allowing Wrf Guidance.

Amidst A Belt Of Enhanced Mid-Level Wlys...This Setup Could Yield A Few Supercells With Large Hail As The Primary Threat During The Late Afternoon/Evening If Tstms Indeed Form.

S Atlantic Coastal Plain...

Diurnal Tstm Coverage Will Likely Become Scattered In Association
With A Dampening Mid-Level Impulse. Amidst The Presence Of Lower To Middle 60s Surface Dew Points And A Belt Of 30-40 Kt Mid-Level Swlys...A Few Multicell Clusters May Organize.

However...Poor Mid-Level Lapse Rates And Potential For Remnant Morning Convection To Retard Surface Heating Will Mitigate Probabilities For A Marginal Wind Threat Attm.


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