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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Mon Apr 15

Evolution Of The Upper Trough Over The Wrn And Central U.S. Will
Continue This Period...As An Upper Low Initially Over The N Central
U.S. Shifts Newd Into Ontario. Meanwhile Farther W...Strong
Short-Wave Troughing Is Forecast To Continue Digging Swd Across The Wrn States...Resulting In Amplification Of The Larger Scale Trough From The Rockies Wwd.

At The Surface...
A Cold Front Is Forecast To Shift Sewd Across The Great Basin/Ca Ahead Of The Digging Short-Wave Trough Affecting This Region.

Meanwhile...The Main Baroclinic Zone Over The Ern 2/3 Of The U.S. Will Become Strung Out In A Wsw-Ene Fashion With Time...Shifting Across The Great Lakes/Midwest Region Through The Period While Making Much Slower Ssewd Progress Across Mo/Ok/Ar Through The End Of The Period.

While The Front Will Be A Focus For Convective Development During The Afternoon...Weak Height Rises Across This Area Suggest A Large-Scale Pattern Unfavorable For More Widespread/Substantial Storms.

Oh Valley Swwd Into The Srn Plains...

A Moist/Destabilizing Afternoon Airmass Is Forecast Ahead Of The
Sewd-Moving Cold Front...But Aforementioned Height Rises -- And Thus Weak Large-Scale Background Subsidence -- Should Limit Coverage And Intensity Of The Convection. Still...Local Frontally-Induced Ascent Should Support Development Of Showers And Isolated Thunderstorms -- Initially From The Lower Oh Valley Swd To Ok/N Tx And Then Later Spreading Across The Mid And Upper Oh Valley Region.

The Greatest Severe Potential Appears To Exist From Roughly Srn Mo
Swwd...Where Greatest Destabilization Is Expected. While
Subsidence-Induced Capping Will Be A Concern...Boundary-Layer
Heating And Frontal Convergence Should Allow Isolated Storm
Development -- With Severe Potential Then Aided By 40 To 50 Kt Wswly Mid-Level Flow. Thus -- Will Maintain Slight Risk Forecast For
Large Hail And Damaging Winds Across This Area.

Though Showers And Storms May Continue Into The Evening Across The Oh Valley/Midwest -- Spreading Enewd With Time... Storms/ Severe Potential Should Diminish From Mo Swwd As Boundary Layer
Cooling/Capping Increase.


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