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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Fri May 17

Central Gulf States...

Deamplifying Upper Low Is Expected To Shift East Across Ar Into Wrn
Tn/Nrn Ms During The Day Friday. While Remnant Forcing Will Be
Primarily Concentrated North Of The Categorical Slgt Risk Region ...Latest Models Support Considerably Stronger Nwly Flow Along
Backside Of Trough Across Ar Into Srn Ms.

It/S Not Entirely Clear How Much Deep Convection Will Evolve Within The Wrn Hemisphere Of This Feature And The Greatest Confidence Of Tstms Is Within Weak Lapse Rate Environment From Nrn Ms Nwd Across Wrn Tn Into The Lower Oh Valley.

Even So...Forecast Soundings Across Cntrl Ms Suggest Some Boundary Layer Heating Will Influence Region Of Expected Deep
Convection. Given Sfc-6km Shear On The Order Of 35kt And
Considerable Veering With Height...Parameters Favor The Potential
For Rotating Updrafts. For This Reason Will Maintain Current Severe
Probs With The Potential For Hail/Wind And Perhaps Even An Isolated
Tornado. Greatest Risk Of Severe Will Be With Activity That Evolves
During Daylight Hours When Sfc Heating Will Be Maximized.

Black Hills Region...

Weak Height Rises Will Overspread The Plains Ahead Of Wrn U.S. Upper Trough. In The Absence Of Meaningful Large Scale Ascent The Primary Focus For Deep Convection Across This Region Will Be Due To Strong Heating Along The Dryline...And Upslope Forcing Across The Black Hills Region Within Cooler Nely Low Level Flow.

Confidence In Areal Coverage Of Tstms Is Not Particularly High But Intense Heating Across The Neb Panhandle Favors Dry Adiabatic Lapse Rates And The Potential For High Based Weak Supercells After 21z. Other Discrete Storms...Likely Lower Based Updrafts...Are Possible Across Nern Wy Into Portions Of Nwrn Sd. Forecast Soundings Strongly Support Supercell Structures With Deep Convection If It Evolves North Of The Warm Front. Again...Coverage Of Convection Is Questionable Given The Weak Height Rises Across This Region. During The Evening Llj Should Strengthen Across Neb Into Scntrl Sd And This Would Support A Continuation Of Aforementioned Tstm Activity If It Survives Into The Late Evening Hours.

Severe Probs May Need To Be Increased Across This Region If Confidence In Areal Coverage Of Storms Rises.

Elsewhere...

Have Introduced Thunderstorm Probabilities Across Parts Of Swrn Tx
Near The Dryline To Account For Late Afternoon Deep Convection Over This Region. Sfc Temperatures Should Soar To Near 100f Along The Dryline And This May Aid Very High Based Tstms.

Deep Convection Will Also Concentrate Along A Nw-Se Corridor From
Portions Of Il Into Nc Within Weak Deep Layer Flow. Aside From An
Isolated Microburst There Is Minimal Reason To Expect Organized
Severe Thunderstorms Across This Region.


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