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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Fri Jul 19

A Broad Belt Of Seasonably Strong Cyclonic Flow Within The Base Of
Larger Scale Polar Vortex Will Expand Out Of S-Cntrl Canada And
Across The Great Lakes And Northeast Through Friday. A Cold Front Will Develop Esewd From The Nrn/Upper Great Lakes And St. Lawrence Valley Through Early Saturday. Organized Severe Storms Are Expected As Lift Ahead Of The Front Acts On A Very Warm/Moist Airmass Extending From The Upper Midwest To Nrn New England.

With The Exception Of The West Coast And Great Basin...Upper Ridging Will Dissipate Across Much Of The Rest Of The Conus. The Long-Lived Cyclonic Gyre That Has Drifted West On Srn Periphery Of Formerly Large Anticyclone Will Continue General Wwd Drift Into Nrn Mexico. Relatively Stronger Mid-Level Ely Flow To The North Of This
Circulation Will Spread West Along The U.S./Mexico Border Area
Between Nm And Az.

Ern Wi/Lm Across Lower Mi To Nrn Maine...

Deep-Layer Lift With Strongest Destabilization Will Develop From Parts Of Ern Wi To Lower Mi Through The Afternoon And Evening. These Areas Will Be In Closer Proximity To Steep Mid-Level Lapse Aiding The Development Of Robust Convective Updrafts Capable Of Producing Large Hail As Convective Temperatures Are Breached. Numerous Episodes Of Strong To Severe Storms Seem Possible In The Great Lakes Through The Day With The Greatest Severe Potential Coming In The Form Of Damaging Winds Around The Time Of Maximum Diurnal Heating.

In Addition To Locally Strong Instability...Strengthening
Unidirectional Vertical Shear Should Contribute To Relatively
Fast-Moving And Longer-Lived Linear Segments With Some Lewps And Bows Resulting In Locally Greater Potential For Damaging Winds And Perhaps A Brief Tornado Or Two.

Stronger Forcing Ahead Of The Cold Front And Developing Upper Trough Will Arrive In The Evening With Ewd Extent Across The Ern
Great Lakes And Nrn New England. Nonetheless...Shear And Instability Should Support One Or Two Longer-Lived Qlcs-Type Complexes Making Esewd Progress Across The Lakes Into The U.S. From Canada. Damaging Winds May Accompany This Convection Into Early Saturday Morning.

Nrn High Plains...

Moist Post-Frontal Upslope Flow Beneath Relatively Fast Mid-Level
Flow Could Spur At Least Isolated Storms Across Ern Wy And Adjacent Areas Of Sd/Neb By Late Friday Afternoon. Nam Continues To Indicate That A Small Mcs With Some Severe Hail/Wind Potential Could Evolve From This Development. Confidence In Timing And Storm Coverage Preclude Higher Severe Probability Forecast At This Time.

Az...

Lift With Mid-Level Circulation Shifting West Will Coincide With Strong Diurnal Destabilization Across The Mountains Of Sern Az. Given An Increase In Deep-Layer Ely Flow On The Nrn Periphery Of The Circulation...A Few Storms May Drift Wwd Across The Lower Deserts
And Bring An Increased Potential For Isolated Strong/Damaging Wind
Gusts.


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