May 24, 2013
Tstm Potential Will Be Quite Limited Across The Conus During The
Day2 Period.
Even So There Appear To Be Two Areas Where Deep Convection Capable Of Producing Lightning May Be Observed.
The First Region Will Be In Association With Ejecting Upper Trough As It Lifts Across The Oh Valley. Latest Model Guidance Suggests Sufficient Moistening Will Occur Across Oh/Pa Such That Parcels Lifted Near 850mb May Yield A Few Hundred J/Kg Mucape. For This Reason There Is Sufficient Confidence That A Few Elevated Tstms May Be Noted During The First Half Of The Period Before Deamplifying Shortwave Trough Ejects Into Ontario/Quebec.
The Second Region Where Tstms May Develop Is Across Nern Tx Into Wrn Ar. Low Levels Are Expected To Moisten Through The Period As More Favorable Trajectories Allow Boundary Layer Moisture To Advance Nwwd Across The Lower Ms Valley/Sern Tx. Late In The Period A Sfc Front Will Be Forced To A Position From Swrn Mo Into Nern Tx. This Wind Shift May Focus Convective Development Well After Midnight. Strong Capping Across Cntrl Tx Should Limit Deep Convection Across This Region With Tstms Likely Focusing Near The Arklatex...Where Stronger Low Level Warm Advection And A Weaker Cap Will Be Noted.
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