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Severe Weather Threat Day 2 Fri Apr 12

A Mid-Level Low Is Forecast To Drift Slowly Enewd Across The Upper
Great Lakes Region This Period...While Periodic Shorter-Wavelength
Troughs Move Quickly Across The Ern U.S. In Fast Swly Flow On The
Sern Periphery Of The Low.

Progression Of These Embedded Features Aloft Will Permit Steady Ewd Progress Of A Surface Cold Front -- Initially Expected To Lie E Of
The Appalachians. The Front Should Approach The Ern Seaboard
Through Late Day...And Shift Offshore By Midnight.

Va/Carolinas Coastal Region...

Scattered Showers And A Few Thunderstorms Will Likely Be Ongoing At The Start Of The Period E Of The Appalachians And Ahead Of The
Advancing Cold Front. While A Fairly Moist Pre-Frontal Boundary
Layer Is Expected...Relatively Weak Lapse Rates Will Hinder
Afternoon Destabilization -- With Aob 1000 J/Kg Mixed-Layer Cape
Anticipated.

Though The Lack Of More Robust Instability Should Limit Overall
Storm Intensity...Severe Potential Will Be Aided By Fairly Strong
Low- To Mid-Level Flow Spreading Across The Region On The Sern
Periphery Of The Mid-Level Trough. Fairly Unidirectional/Moderately
Strong Shear Should Support Locally Stronger Storms/Storm Clusters
-- Particularly During The Afternoon/Early Evening Before The Front
Clears The Coast. Though An Isolated Tornado Cannot Be Ruled
Out...Swly Component Of The Flow Within The Pre-Frontal Boundary
Layer Should Limit Low-Level Shear. Thus -- Expect Locally Damaging Winds And Marginal Hail To Be The Primary Severe Threats.


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