Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Wed Apr 10

Nrn La And Central/Ern Ar To Il Through Tonight...

A Midlevel Low Is Expected To Deepen Over The Central Plains Today
And The Mid Mo Valley Tonight...As An Embedded Jet Streak Rotates
Nnewd From W Tx To Ok/Ks. In Response...Slow Deepening Of The
Surface Low Is Expected Near Stl...While The Trailing Cold Front
Moves Only Slowly Ewd Across The Ozark Plateau Through This
Afternoon...And More Quickly Sewd Toward The Tx Coast.

In Advance Of The Front...A Plume Of Rich Low-Level Moisture Originating From The Nw Caribbean Has Spread Inland Across La/Ar...Where Boundary Layer Dewpoints Have Reached The Upper 60s To Near 70 F. This Moistening Has Occurred Beneath A Remnant Eml Plume With Midlevel Lapse Rates Of 7.5-8.5 C/Km.

Visible Imagery Shows Some Cloud Breaks Across Much Of Ar...Which Will Allow Surface Temperatures To Warm Well Into The 70s This Afternoon...And Support Mlcape Near 2500 J/Kg. Also...The Sly Llj Will Increase Gradually This Afternoon Through Early Tonight From Central/Ern Ar To Il/Indiana...In Response To The Deepening Mid Ms Valley Low. Likewise...Mid-Upper Swly Flow Will Increase With The Glancing Influence Of The Jet Streak Ejecting Nnewd Over Ern Ok/Ks.

The Net Result Will Be An Environment With Moderate Instability And
Increasingly Favorable Low-Level And Deep-Layer Vertical Shear For
Supercells /Effective Srh Approaching 300 M2 Per S2 And Effective
Bulk Shear Near 50 Kt/.

Given The Relatively Slow Motion Of The Cold Front Across Wrn Ar
This Afternoon...And Substantially Richer Low-Level Moisture Across
La/Ar Compared To Areas Farther W In Previous Days...The Risk For
Supercells Both Along And A Little Ahead Of The Cold Front Will Be
Greater Compared To Previous Days.

This Will Support An Increasing Risk For A Few Tornadoes Later This Afternoon Into This Evening Across Central/Ern Ar Into Se Mo...And Potentially An Isolated Strong Tornado If A Semi-Discrete Storm Can Be Maintained For A Couple Of Hours. Large Hail And Damaging Winds Can Also Be Expected With What Should Evolve Into A Somewhat Solid Frontal Squall Line By Early Tonight.

The Ern Extent Of The Severe Risk Overnight Will Be Limited By Slow Ewd Motion Of The Front...And By Weakening Instability Across Ern Ms/Al Into Middle Tn Where Low-Level Is More Limited By Trajectories From Within The Lingering Ridge Over The Se States.

Oh Valley To Mid Atlantic Through This Evening...

A Few Small Clusters Of Thunderstorms Have Already Developed Across Oh As Of Late Morning...And This Convection Should Persist Through The Afternoon While Spreading Ewd Into Pa. Instability Is Not Particularly Strong...With The Greatest Low-Level Moisture Feed Into The Oh Valley From The Sw...But Strong Surface Heating And Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates Extend Ewd To The Mid Atlantic Coast. Given The Largely Unidirectional Wly Wind Profiles With Up To 50 Kt Flow Around 500 Mb...Isolated Damaging Gusts Will Be Possible...As Well As Marginally Severe Hail W Of The Appalachians.


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