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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Tue Jan 29

Nern Tx Through Lower Ms Valley Wrn Tn And Swrn Oh Valley...

It Still Appears That A Significant Severe Weather Event May Evolve Across The Lower Ms Valley Into Wrn Portions Of The Tn And Oh Valleys...Especially This Evening Into Tonight.

This Includes The Potential For Tornadoes...A Few Of Which Could Be Strong And Numerous Damaging Wind Events.

Sfc Low Over Nern Ok Will Deepen And Lift Newd Through The Mid Ms
Valley Within Exit Region Of Strengthening Upper Jet Rounding The
Base Of The Trough.

Intense 60-70 Kt Llj Will Develop Ewd Through The Lower Ms Valley Contributing To Destabilization As Low-Mid 60s Dewpoints Are Advected Nwd Through The Boundary Layer.

The 18z Soundings From Shv And Lzk Already Indicate Low 60s Near Sfc Dewpoints And Weak Sfc Based Instability...But With An Inversion
Around 700 Mb. This Inversion Will Likely Be Eliminated As The
Atmosphere Comes Under The Influence Of Large Scale Ascent
Downstream From The Progressive Trough. Radar Data Also Indicate
Evidence Of A Gravity Wave Moving Through Ern Tx Into The Lower Ms
Valley.

Squall Line From Ern Ok Through Cntrl/Swrn Tx Is Expected To
Intensify As It Develops East And Interacts With The Moist Axis.
Embedded Supercells...Bowing Segments And Meso-Vortices Appear
Likely With A Threat Of Damaging Wind And Tornadoes. Other Organized Severe Storms May Develop Ahead Of The Line Within The Moistening Warm Sector And In Association With The Intensifying Llj Across A Portion Of The Lower Ms Valley And Wrn Tn Tonight. Some Of These Storms Could Evolve Into Discrete Supercells With A Risk For Tornadoes.

The Greatest Severe Risk Is Expected This Evening Through Tonight ...Beginning As The Pre-Frontal Convection Near And Nw Of The
Arklatex...And Continuing Overnight As Additional Pre-Frontal
Convection Forms Within One Or More Warm Sector Confluence Bands Near The Ms River.

Vertical Shear Will Be Extremely Strong Within A Moist Environment With At Least Weak Surface-Based Instability. Though Mlcape May Only Reach 500-750 J/Kg...Effective Srh Of 500-700 M2/S2 In Association With A 70-80 Kt Llj Will Support The Potential For A Few Strong Tornadoes With Fast-Moving Pre-Frontal Supercells...As Well As Circulations Embedded Within What Will Become A Well-Formed Squall Line.

Widespread And Significant Damaging Winds Will Also Be Possible As Far Ne As The Lower Oh Valley...Where 80+ Kt Flow Just Above The Surface Will Coincide With At Least Weak Surface-Based Buoyancy Through Most Of The Night.


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