Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Tue Apr 9

The Deep Trough Over The Central/Srn Rockies Will Make Slow Ewd/ Esewd Progress Through Early Wednesday As One Embedded Speed Max Rotates Nnewd From Nm To Wrn Ks...And Another Upstream Speed Max Translates Esewd From Srn Ca To Nw Mexico.

At The Surface...An Arctic Cold Front Is Surging Swd Across The Tx Panhandle As Of Mid Morning...With A Little Slower Sewd Motion Of The Front Across Ks/Nw Ok. The Initial Lee Cyclone Over The Srn High Plains Will Be Shunted Swd And Weaken As A Result Of The Frontal Surge Today...While The Primary Synoptic Cyclone Evolves Across Nrn Mo By Wednesday Morning.

Otherwise...A Convectively-Enhanced Wave Over Ia Will Progress Enewd Toward Wi/Lower Mi...On The Cool Side Of A Front That Is Drifting Nwd Across Il/Indiana/Oh. S Of The Front...A Broad Warm Sector Is Established From The Oh Valley To The Srn Plains...With The Richest Moisture And Steepest Lapse Rates Over Ok And Tx.

Central/Srn Plains This Afternoon Into Tonight...

A Feed Of Low-Mid 60s Boundary Layer Dewpoints Persists From Tx Into Ok/Ks...Beneath Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates Per 12z Soundings. A Strong Cap Also Continues In Association With The Warm Elevated Mixed Layer...And Surface Heating From Nrn Ok Into Ks Will Likely Be Slowed By Lingering Stratus. Thus...The Strongest Instability /Mlcape Of 2000-3000 J Per Kg/ Is Expected From Central Ok Into N Tx...With Values Diminishing To About 1000 J/Kg Farther Ne Across Ks.

The Presence Of The Cap In The Warm Sector...Largely Front-Parallel
Deep-Layer Flow/Shear Across Ks/Ok...And Anafrontal Flow Will
Promote Line Segments Near And Immediately Behind The Surface Cold Front This Afternoon Into Tonight. Still...Somewhat Discrete
Supercells Will Still Be Possible With The Initial Convection Near
The Dryline-Cold Front Intersection This Afternoon From Extreme Nw
Tx Into Sw Ok Before The Front Undercuts The Storms...And In Ks
Where The Front Is Oriented A Little More N-S And The Cap Could Be A Little Weaker Across Central Ks This Afternoon Per The 12z Ddc
Sounding.

Large Hail Will Be The Primary Concern With The Storms This Afternoon Into Tonight With Storms Along And On The Cool Side Of The Front. The Damaging Wind Risk Is More Questionable Given The
Likely Elevated/Post-Frontal Nature Of Most Of The Storms... Especially Tonight.

Likewise...The Tornado Risk Will Depend Largely On Maintaining Discrete Storms Along The Front.

Ne Ia/Nrn Il/Srn Wi Into Lower Mi Through This Afternoon...

A Convectively-Enhanced Midlevel Wave Over N Central Ia/S Central Mn As Of Mid Morning Will Continue To Progress Enewd Across Wi And Lower Mi Through The Afternoon...And This Wave Is Preceded By A More Diffuse Wave Over Srn Wi. Ascent/Low-Level Waa Associated With Each Wave...N Of The Surface Front...Has Been Sustaining Clusters Of Elevated Thunderstorms This Morning. The Strongest Storms Have Produced Marginally Severe Hail...And This Risk Should Continue Into This Afternoon Given The Upstream Feed Of 1000-1500 J/Kg Mucape And Seasonably Cool Temperature Profiles Based On 12z Soundings From Dvn And Ilx.

Mid Ms And Oh Valleys This Afternoon/Evening...

The Surface Warm Front Will Lift Slowly Nwd Across Oh/Indiana...
While Less Nwd Progress Is Expected Across Srn Ia/Nrn Il Where The
Front Is Reinforced By Convection On The Cool Side Of The Boundary.

Along And S Of The Boundary...The Cap Will Not Be Particularly
Strong...But Forcing For Ascent Is Expected To Remain Largely N Of
The Front With The Waves Ejecting Enewd From Ia/Wi.

Though Warm Sector Storm Coverage And Intensity Are Both In Question...Will Maintain Low Severe Probabilities Given Weak-Moderate Instability In The Warm Sector And Sufficient Deep-Layer Vertical Shear For Supercells.


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