Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Thu Jul 18

Upper Ms Valley To Ny...

Early Day Activity Could Produce Some Hail Or Perhaps Even Gusty
Winds...However More Significant Convection Is Expected To Develop
Across The Warm Sector Near The Sfc Low Over Mn As Sfc Temperatures Warm To Near 90f. With Substantial Low Level Veering The Most Likely Zone For Intense Updraft Development Will Occur Over Nrn Mn Along The Advancing Boundary...West Of The Cool Influence Of Lake Superior.

Initial Activity Could Exhibit Supercell Characteristics And With Steep Lapse Rates Very Large Hail May Be Noted With This Activity. If Sufficient Storm Coverage Develops There May Be An Enhanced Risk For Damaging Winds With Convection That Spreads East Along South Shore Of Lake Superior Into The U.P. Of Mi. Large Scale Forcing/Shear Will Likely Maintain This Convection Well Into The Evening Hours...Possibly Spreading Into Nrn Lower Mi After Midnight.

Ny...

Despite Negligible Large Scale Support Aloft...It Appears Diurnal Heating Should Force Sfc Temperatures Quickly Into The Mid 80s Across Wrn/Upstate Ny Which Is More Than Adequate For Breaching
Convective Temperatures. With Dew Points Expected To Hold Near 70f And Pw Values On The Order Of 1.75 Inches...Isolated Thunderstorms Will Likely Develop. Modest Wly Shear Should Prove Supportive Of Strong Multi-Cell Updrafts Capable Of Producing Gusty Winds And Perhaps Even Some Hail. This Activity Will Be Strongly Diurnal And Should Weaken With Loss Of Daytime Heating.

Gulf Coast...

Wwd Moving Short-Wave Trough Should Advance Across Al Into Ms/La
During The Day. Considerable Amount Of Convection Developed Invof This Feature Across Sc/Ga On Wednesday And Daytime Heating Should Aid New Development Downstream Across Much Of Srn Ms/La Into Sern Tx By Mid Day. Isolated Wet Microbursts Are The Primary Severe Threat With This Convection.

Elsewhere...

Sct Convection Will Once Again Develop Across Much Of The Srn
Rockies...Nwd Across Co Into Portions Of Ern Wy/Black Hills Of Sd.
Some Weak Organization May Be Noted Across This Region And Marginally Severe Hail/Wind Is Possible With Late Afternoon/Early Evening Storms.


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