Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Thu Jan 10

Closed Upper Low Over Wrn Tx Will Eject Negatively Tilted Into The
Lower-Mid Ms Valley Thursday In Response To The Amplification Of A
Large Upper Trough Over The Wrn States. A Weak Sfc Low Will Develop Through Ern Ok...Ks And Mo In Association With This Feature...While Trailing Pacific Front Advances Slowly Ewd Into The Ms Valley. Warm Front Will Develop Nwd Through The Lower Ms Valley Region...While A Coastal Front Persists Across Srn La.

Srn La Into Srn Ms...

Trends In Observational Data Including Radar Suggest The Shallow
Convective Outflow Boundary Over The Nwrn Gulf Is Retreating And A
Quasistationary Coastal Boundary Resides Along The Sern La Coast.

Storms Will Likely Continue Developing Along The Conveyor Belt With
Zone Of Development Shifting Slowly Ewd During The Day.

Some Severe Threat May Persist...Especially Along And South Of The Coastal Front That May Move A Little Farther Inland. Weak Lapse Rates And Widespread Clouds Suggest Sbcape Will Remain Marginal...Generally Aob 500 J/Kg And Confined To The Warm Sector Where Upper 60s Dewpoints Reside. Primary Threat Will Be From Any Bowing Segments And Perhaps A Couple Tornadoes As Storms Lift Nwd And Interact With The Boundary Where Low Level Shear Will Be Maximized.

Nrn La...Ern Ar Through Wrn Parts Of The Tn Valley...

Sly Low Level Jet Will Strengthen Thursday And Shift Nnewd Through
The Lower-Mid Ms Valley Within Zone Of Increasing Upper Divergence
Associated With The Ejecting Shortwave Trough. This Should
Contribute To Nwd Advection Of Modified Cp Air With Low 60s
Dewpoints Now Residing Over The Lower Ms Valley.

However...Nwd Advance Of Greater Near Sfc Theta-E Air Will Be Limited By Esely Trajectories Along The Srn Periphery Of Cp Sfc High Pressure Centered Over The Oh Valley.

Current Radar Trends Indicate Thunderstorms Increasing And Expanding Nwd Through The Wrn Gulf Into Swrn La In Response To An Upper Jet Streak Rotating Through Base Of The Upper Trough.

This Area Of Convection Will Likely Develop Nwd Through The Lower Ms Valley Early Thursday...North And West Of The Outflow Boundary Laid Out From Convection Farther East. Esely Trajectories And Expanding Rain Area Should Significantly Limit Sbcape From Nrn La Through Remainder Of Lower-Mid Ms Valley Where The Greater Forcing And Stronger Low-Mid Level Winds Are Likely To Develop.

Will Maintain 5% Severe Probabilities This Update And Continue To
Monitor For A Possible Slight Risk Should It Begin To Appear That
More Instability Will Be Realized Than Currently Anticipated.

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