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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Thu Apr 11

Primary Shortwave Trough Responsible For Severe Tstm Potential Will Rapidly Move Newd From The Lower Ms Valley To The Cntrl
Appalachians/Carolinas By Daybreak.

In The Low Levels...A Frontal Wave Analyzed Over E-Cntrl Al During The Evening...Should Develop Newd Into The Carolina Piedmont By Early Morning.

Concurrently...The Primary Surface Low Will Move Newd Across Ind/Oh As A Cold Front Moves Across Portions Of The Oh/Tn Valleys And Through Parts Of The Nern Gulf Coast States.

Parts Of The Sern States And Cntrl Appalachians...

Extensive North To South Oriented Pre-Frontal Squall Line Extending
From The Oh Valley Swd To Mobile Bay...Will Continue To Move Ewd
This Evening.

The Srn Half Of The Squall Line Is Where The Highest Severe Potential Is Expected Tonight Owing To Greater Remaining Instability.

Surface Observation Trends Show A Steady Nwd Movement Of Low To Mid 60s Dewpoints Into The Wrn Carolinas This Evening With
Dewpoints Near 70 Deg F Near The Gulf Coast. Models Show A 40-50 Kt Llj Lifting Nwd From The Deep South Into The Wrn Carolinas And Upper Oh Valley By Late Tonight.

Despite The Loss Of Heating...The Well Organized Squall Line From Tn Swd To The Fl Panhandle Should Maintain Vigor Well Into The Nighttime Hours Owing To Increasing Forcing For Ascent In Association With The Approaching Lower Ms Valley Shortwave Trough. As Such...Wind Dmg Potential Will Likely Continue With The Line...Especially Invof Lewp/Bowing Segments And Smaller-Scale Embedded Mesovortices.

Additional Severe Hazards Include Isold Large Hail With Supercells In The Near Term...Mainly Over Nern Ga...While The Potential For A Few Tornadoes Will Remain Possible Tonight From The Srn Appalachians And Carolinas Swd To The Nern Gulf Coast.

The Nrn Portion Of The Convective Line Over The Oh Valley Will
Progressively Move Into An Increasingly Marginal Thermodynamic
Environment...With Perhaps An Isold Strong Gust Occurring With
Passage Of The Convective Line.


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