Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Sep 1

Regarding The Slight Risk In The Midwest...Some Spatial Adjustments Were Made Although The General Forecast Scenario Has Not Changed. Primary/Most Probable Severe Risk Should Exist This Afternoon/Early Evening Across Downstate Portions Of Il/Indiana And Adjacent Ky In Vicinity Of Outflow Boundary/Old Front.

Meanwhile...Additional Strong/Possibly Severe Tstms May Develop Along The Advancing Cold Front From Eastern Wi/Lake Mi Vicinity Into North-Central Il. However...The Influence Of Subsidence/Mid-Level Warming May Especially Hinder Updraft Vigor Across Areas Such As Eastern Wi...While A More Stable Airmass Eastward Into Northern/ Central Indiana May Limit The Spatial Extent Of Any Stronger Storms That Develop Near The Cold Front.

Other Sporadic Strong/Potentially Severe Tstms Will Remain Possible Into Early Evening Across The Southeast States/Carolinas And Perhaps Other Areas Of The Eastern Conus.

Prev Discussion...

While An Upper Trough/Low Off The Pac Nw Coast Will Make
Continued/Slow Progress Toward The Coast And Yield An Ewd Expansion In Cyclonic Flow Into The Nwrn States...Most Of The West Will Remain Under The Influence Of A Large/Persistent Upper Ridge.

Meanwhile...Broad Cyclonic Flow Will Prevail Over The Ern Half Of
The Country...As A Short-Wave Trough Shifting Across The Upper Great Lakes Contributes To Some Amplification Of The Longer-Wavelength Troughing Over The Ern Conus.

At The Surface...A Relatively Weak Pattern Is Evident...With A Prior
Front Lingering From Srn New England Wwd Across The Midwest/Oh
Valley And A Second/Weak Front Shifting Sewd Across The Great
Lakes/Upper Midwest/Central Plains. This Area -- Extending From The Northeast Wswwd Across The Oh/Tn/Mid Ms Valleys And Into The Central And Srn High Plains Near And Ahead Of The Aforementioned Fronts -- Will Contain The Primary Area Of Convective/Severe Potential This Period.

Illinois Vicinity...

Somewhat Concentrated Wind/Hail Risk Still Appears Possible Across The Il Vicinity...As Low Cloud Cover Dissipates Allowing
Heating/Destabilization To Commence Ahead Of The Weak/ Advancing Cold Front. While This Region Should Remain Near The Srn Fringe Of Stronger Flow Aloft...Somewhat Greater Instability Should Evolve Here As Opposed To Areas Farther E/Ne In Closer Proximity To The Upper System And Associated Stronger Flow Regime.

At Least Isolated Storms Should Develop Near The Front As It Moves
Into The Area During The Afternoon...With A Few Cells Organizing
Given The Ample Cape/Shear Environment Currently Anticipated. As
Such...A Relative Concentration Of Marginal Hail/Wind Events May
Materialize -- Thus Warranting Continuation Of The Slight Risk Area.


Beneath A Broad Area Of Moderate Cyclonic Flow Aloft From The
Central Plains Ewd To The Atlantic Coast...A Moist Boundary Layer
Will Locally Destabilize Where Pockets Of Heating Can Occur Away
From Ongoing Precipitation/Cloud Cover. Convective Coverage Is
Progged To Increase Through The Afternoon As This Destabilization
Occurs -- Primarily Invof Various Frontal And Convective Boundaries
Indicated Across This Region. Focused Areas Of More Robust
Convection Remain Difficult To Discern Within This Broad/Complex
Region. Still...Locally Ample Instability And Modest Shear Suggest
A Broad Area Of Low-End/Isolated Severe Risk Remains The Most
Appropriate Forecast Attm...Most Concentrated Through The Diurnally
Favorable Late Afternoon Through Mid Evening Time Frame.

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