Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun May 12

Across The Fl Peninsula...A Few Strong/Possibly Isolated Severe Tstm Will Remain Possible Through Late Afternoon As Storms Drift Eastward Across Roughly The Eastern Half Of The Fl Peninsula Amid Weak Westerly Flow...Aside From An Immediate East-Coastal Sea Breeze.

Across The South-Central High Plains...Observational/Short-Term
Guidance Trends Still Suggest That High-Based Tstm Development Is Still Plausible Late This Afternoon/Early Evening Near/East Of A
Surface Trough/Surface Low Currently Located Across Far Southwest
Ks/Ok Panhandle. Such Development Still Appears Most Probable Across Southwest Ks/Tx Panhandle/Far Western Ok Between 21z-00z Contemporary Modifications To The 12z Observed Dodge City Sounding Suggest That Mlcape Is Only A Few Hundred J/Kg...But Steep Lapse Rates/Sufficient Shear In Conjunction With Observed 30-40f Surface Temp-Dewpoint Deltas May Support Localized Severe Hail/Downburst Potential As Isolated Tstms Spread South-Southeastward.

Prev Discussion...

Fl...

Scattered Storms Should Again Develop Across Portions Of The Nrn And Sern Peninsula Today As Weakly Capped Airmass Destabilizes With Heating Of The Day. Despite Weak/Ambiguous Forcing Aloft ...Generally Difluent Mid/Upper Level Flow And Residual Frontal Zone Across North Fl Will Support Storm Development Amidst Sbcape On The Order Of 1500 J/Kg By Afternoon. Stronger Shear Over North Fl Will Be Somewhat Displaced From Greater Destabilization Farther South And East. Locally Strong Wind Gusts And Perhaps Some Hail Will Be Possible As Activity Increases And Consolidates Along The Frontal And Seabreeze Boundaries Before Diminishing And/Or Moving Offshore This Evening.

Latest Storm-Scale Guidance Is Consistent In Indicating Greater
Storm Coverage Of Multicellular Character Will Exist Across Sern Fl
Through The Late Afternoon. This Scenario Also Seems Likely Given
Latest Cloud Trends In Vsbl Satl Imagery. Hail To 1 Inch And Gusty
To Damaging Winds Will Be The Main Hazards.

Ok/Ks Border And Nern Tx Pnhdl...

Steep Low To Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Compensate For A Relatively
Dry Air Mass With Sbcape Values Approaching 500 J/Kg Within
Thermal/Lee Trough By Later This Afternoon. Daytime Heating Coupled With Low-Level Convergence And Difluent Flow Aloft Should Aid Isolated Storm Initiation. Forecast Wind Profiles Are Characterized
By Low Level Slys Topped By Stronger Nnwly Flow In The Mid/Upper
Levels Resulting In Sufficient Deep Shear For Some Storm
Organization/Persistence. In Addition To Hail To Around 1 Inch... High-Based Nature Of The Convection And Dry Sub-Cloud Airmass
Will Contribute To A Localized High Wind Hazard Around Any Storms
That Do Develop.

Nern Ore To Ncntrl Id...

Breakdown Of Upper Ridge Will Commence Today And Continue Through Day 2 As A Series Of Progressively Stronger Shortwave Troughs Spread Inland From The Nern Pac. Relatively High Pw Values In Excess Of 0.75 Inches Across Interior Ore And Ncntrl Id Will Aid In The Development Of Modest Sbcape Perhaps Around 500 J/Kg With Heating Of The Day. If Convective Inhibition Can Be Overcome Through Heating And Persistent Lift Along Pre-Frontal Trough Axis...A Few Tstms Seem Possible. Strengthening Midlevel Flow Will Contribute To Adequate Shear For At Least Isolated Stronger Updrafts Capable Of Marginally Severe Hail And Perhaps Stronger Winds Into The Evening.


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