Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Mar 31

S Tx...

00z Soundings At Crp/Bro Indicated A Pronounced Capping Inversion. This Factor Combined With The Onset Of Nocturnal Cooling Will Result In Increasing Inhibition And The Eventual Diminishing/Weakening Trend In The Ongoing Long-Lived Supercells Moving Sewd Across The Brush Country Of S Tx.

Until Then...Modified Soundings As Described In Mesoscale Discussion 360 With Available Moderate Instability... Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates And Effective Bulk Shear Of 50-60 Kt Will Support Supercells. Large Hail And Damaging Winds Will Be The Primary Threats This Evening. A Significant Hail Threat /Aoa 2 Inch Diameter/ Cannot Be Ruled Out. However...Given The Spatiotemporal Limitation Of This Latter Threat...A 10 Percent Significant Hail Probability Will Not Be Introduced With This Outlook.

Parts Of Srn Al/Fl Panhandle/Srn Ga...

A Few Stronger Storms Remain Possible Across This Region /Mainly
From Sern Al Into Swrn Ga/...Given The Presence Of Effective Bulk
Shear Of 30-35 Kt Supporting The Potential For Additional Storm
Organization. However...The Continued Stabilizing Of The Boundary
Layer With The Loss Of Day Time Heating Should Further Increase
Surface Based Inhibition...And The Eventual Decrease In Storm
Intensities.

Sacramento/San Joaquin Valleys...

Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates /Around 7 C Per Km/ Per 00z Oakland Ca
Sounding And Cold Midlevel Temperatures /-22 To -24 C At 500 Mb/ Per Regional 00z Soundings Suggest The Potential Yet This Evening For Some Hail With Stronger Storms Across This Region. However...
Relatively Weak Lower Tropospheric/Cloud Layer Winds Will Continue To Result In Weak Deep Layer Shear...Limiting The Potential For Storm Organization. Thus...Hail /Possibly Reaching Svr Values/ Is Expected To Be The Primary Threat This Evening. Severe
Probabilities Have Been Reduced Accordingly With This Outlook
Issuance.


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