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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Jun 2

New England...

Adjusted Wrn Edge Of The 30 Percent Wind Probability Ewd To Account For Advancing Storm Complex Near The Vt/Nh Border. Also Expanded 5 Percent Tornado Probs A Bit Farther Swwd Into Swrn Me And Far Nern Nh Where Lcl Heights Remain Relatively Low.

Otherwise...Scattered Severe Storms Will Persist AcrossErn Ny Into Me. Mainly Straight Line Hodographs Will Continue To Favor Damaging Winds Within Line Segments And Bows...As Well As A
Few Stronger Hail Cores. A Brief Tornado Could Occur In The 5
Percent Tornado Area.

Nrn Va/Md Into Ern Pa...

Brought Slight Risk Area Farther West To Account For Current
Initiation Zone Where Large Hail May Occur.

Prev Discussion...

Mid Atlantic States Into New England...

Storms Are Developing From Parts Of Ern Ny Into Nrn New England
Within A Moist Pre-Frontal Environment Where Surface Dew Points Are In The Mid/Upper 60s. Temperatures Have Warmed Into The Low/Mid 80s In Areas That Are Relatively Cloud Free Resulting In An Unstable Air Mass With Mlcape Of 1000-1500 J/Kg. Continued Diabatic Heating Will Support Additional Destabilization With Cape Reaching 1500-2000 J/Kg Across This Area During The Afternoon.

A Well-Defined Short Wave Trough /Evident In Water Vapor Moving
Across The Lower Great Lakes Region/ Is Expected To Progress Newd Across The Nern States Through This Evening With Enhanced Large Scale Ascent Overspreading The Region From The West. As The Cap Continues To Weaken Through Vertical Motion And Low Level Heating...Multiple Bands Of Storms Are Likely To Continue
Developing. Latest Vad Wind Profiles Exhibit Deep Swly Flow Of
30-50 Kt Above 1-2 Km Agl Which Will Provide Sufficient Vertical
Shear To Aid Storm Organization Including Embedded Bowing Line
Segments And Isolated Supercells.

The Supercell Threat May Be Greater Over Parts Of Nrn And Possibly Central Me This Afternoon Where Strong Winds Aloft Coupled With A Nwd Moving Warm Front Will Result In More Favorable Low- And Mid-Level Shear. Damaging Wind Gusts Are Expected To Be The Primary Severe Weather Threat Although Severe Hail Will Also Be Possible With Stronger Storms. In Addition...There Is Potential For A Tornado Or Two To Develop Especially Over Parts Of Nrn/Central Me.

Farther South From Ern Pa Into The Delmarva Peninsula Clouds Have Spread Ewd And Will Inhibit Stronger Diabatic Heating And
Destabilization This Afternoon. Nevertheless...A Weakening Cap
Suggests Scattered Storms May Develop This Afternoon With Potential For A Few Storms To Produce Damaging Wind Gusts And Marginal Hail.

Nm/Far W Tx Late This Afternoon Into Tonight...

Low-Level Moisture Will Spread Nwwd Up The Rio Grande And Pecos
Valleys From W Tx Into Nm In A Developing Post-Frontal Upslope Flow Regime...As Indicated By The Rich Moisture In The 12z Drt
Sounding...And In The Moistening Above The Surface This Morning At
Maf. A Weak Midlevel Wave Will Progress Ewd From The Lower Co River Valley To Nm By Late Evening...Which Will Contribute To Weak
Background Ascent In The Presence Of Orographic Lift And The Diurnal Instability Maximum.

The Net Result Will Be An Environment Supportive Of Scattered Thunderstorm Development From The Davis Mountains Nwwd Into Central Nm By Late This Afternoon ...Where Mlcape Will Range From 500-1000 J/Kg In Central Nm To About 3000 J/Kg In Far Sw Tx. Meanwhile...20-30 Kt Midlevel Wly Flow Will Combine With Low-Level Sely Winds To Result In Effective Bulk Shear Of 25-35 Kt...Which Will Be Marginally Favorable For Supercells And/Or Organized Clusters. Given The Modest Vertical Shear And Large Temperature-Dewpoint Spreads...Large Hail And A Few Damaging Outflow Gusts Will Be The Main Severe Threats.

S Central Mt This Afternoon/Evening...

A Midlevel Trough Over Wa Will Pivot Esewd Over Id/Wrn Mt By Later
This Afternoon...As Cyclogenesis Occurs Invof Nrn Wy. Downstream
From The Midlevel Trough...A Belt Of Ascent Will Overspread Central
Mt Later This Afternoon/Evening...And Vertical Shear Will Likewise
Increase. However...Low-Level Moisture/Instability Will Remain
Limited With Only Low-Mid 40s Dewpoints Available. Given The
Favorable Wind Profiles With Ely Low-Level Flow And Stronger Swly
Flow Aloft...A Few Persistent Storms Could Pose A Risk For Strong
Outflow Gusts And Some Small Hail.


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