Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Jul 7

Pa Into Srn New England...

Expanded The Slight Risk Area Newd Into Srn New England Ahead Of A Progressive Mcs Now Over Cntrl Pa. Continued Heating As Well As Ample Precipitable Water Will Help Maintain Strong To Severe Storm Complex With Main Threat Of A Few Damaging Wind Gusts. Gps Sensors Indicate Pwat Increasing To Around 2.00 Inches Just Ne Of The Existing Line Of Storms.

Other Cells Now Over Sern Ny/Ma Are Likely Severe With Hail And/Or
Damaging Downbursts. These Areas May See A Second Round Of Storms With Damaging Wind If The Pa Complex Holds Together.

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Mid Atlantic Region...

Morning Radar Loops Show An Organized Line Of Showers And
Thunderstorms Moving Across The Mountains Of Wv. The Air Mass Ahead Of This Activity Is Becoming Moderately Unstable With Dewpoints Near 70f And Afternoon Mlcape Values Expected To Range From 2000-2500 J/Kg. Despite Rather Weak Low Level Winds...A 35-45 Knot Mid Level Speed Max Is Accompanying The Convection. This Should Enhance The Potential For Locally Damaging Wind Gusts Along The Leading Edge. Storms Are Expected To Move Into Northeast Pa And Northern Nj This Evening Before Weakening Due To Loss Of Daytime Heating.

Northern High Plains...

Water Vapor Loops Show A Weak Shortwave Trough Moving Across Wy. This Feature Should Emerge Into The High Plains Of Sern Mt/Ern
Wy/Wrn Sd Later This Afternoon. A Combination Of Backed Low Level
Winds And Moderately Strong Westerly Flow Aloft Will Provide
Favorable Deep Layer Shear For Organized/Severe Storms. Clouds Have Been Slow To Erode Over Sd...Which May Delay Initiation Until Late Afternoon In That Area. However...It Appears Likely That At Least
Isolated Supercell Storms Will Form Today...Spreading Southeastward Into Parts Of Neb This Evening. Large Hail And Damaging Winds Will Be Possible In Those Storms That Develop.


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