Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Jul 14

Two Changes Have Been Made To The Outlook For This Issuance.

The First Change Is To Extend The 5 Percent Wind Damage And Hail
Probabilities Swd To Areas Near And To The West Of Corpus Christi.
Thunderstorms Currently In Cntrl Tx Will Most Likely Move Swd Across
The Tx Coastal Plains To Near The Middle Tx Coast Where Objective
Analysis Shows Moderate Instability In Place.

The Second Change To The Outlook Is To Add Parts Of Ne Mt And Nw Nd Into Thunder Where Some Convection Is Ongoing Associated With A Shortwave Trough Evident On Water Vapor Imagery.

Prev Discussion...

A Conditional Risk For Svr Tstms May Evolve Over Parts Of The S Cntrl And Sern States In Association With Mo-Ok Upr Low.

Srn Plns This Aftn/Eve...

While A Conditional Risk For Strong T-storm Development Will Exist...The Potential Appears Too Low Attm To Warrant Upgrade To Slight Risk.

Ar/Tn/Ms/Al To S Atlantic Cst This Aftn...

With Rich Moisture In Place /Pw Around 2 Inches/...Setup Could
Support Sctd Areas Of Storms With A Potential For Isold Dmgg Wind
Gusts Or Even Short-Lived Tornadoes Given A Focused Area Of Low-Lvl Convergence. Attm...However...It Appears That Low-Lvl Forcing For Ascent Will Remain Weak...It Is Possible That An Area May Be Worthy Of Upgrade To Slight Risk.

Cntrl High Plns To Nrn Plns/Upr Ms Vly Today...

Svr Threat Should Be Limited Over This Region…Nevertheless... Small Clusters Of Late Aftn/Eve Storms May Have Isold Strong Wind Gusts.

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