Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Jan 6

A Positively Tilted Shortwave Trough From The Upper Great Lakes Into Lower Ms Valley Will Progress Ewd To Off The Atlantic Coast By
07/12z.

Upstream From This Feature...A Shortwave Trough Over British Columbia Will Amplify While Moving Into The Canadian Prairie Provinces.

Elsewhere...A Mid/Upper-Level Low Along The Ca Coast Will Progress Sewd Into The Lower Co Valley By The End Of The D1 Period.

In The Low Levels...The Primary Focus For Shower And Tstm
Development Will Be A Cold Front Which Will Settle Slowly Swd
Through The Fl Peninsula.

Fl Peninsula Today...

12z Soundings And Current Surface Observations Indicate The Presence Of A Moist Low-Level Air Mass To The South Of The Surface
Front...Characterized By Boundary-Layer Dewpoints Of 65-70 F.

However...Midlevel Lapse Rates Were Quite Poor Which Will Limit The
Degree Of Air Mass Destabilization Through The Peak Of The Diurnal
Heating Cycle.

Latest Model Guidance Indicates An Increasing Probability Of Tstms This Afternoon Along The Cold Front...As Well As The Developing Sea Breeze Circulations Where Sufficient Boundary-Layer Heating Will Yield A Weakly Unstable Environment With Little Or No Convective Inhibition.

Despite The Presence Of A Vertically Veering Wind Profile With
Modestly Strong Deep-Layer Shear...The Weak Lapse Rates And
Convective Instability Are Expected To Preclude A Risk For Severe
Storms.

Cntrl/Srn Ca Coast Today...

Forcing For Ascent And Steep Midlevel Lapse Rates Associated With
The Upper Low May Promote A Few Lightning Strikes With Deeper
Convective Elements Along The Coast And Adjacent Near-Shore Waters. Anticipated Areal Coverage Appears Too Limited To Warrant Inclusion Of A General Tstm Area.


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