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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Feb 24

Potent Upr Low And Associated Jet Streak Now Amplifying Ssewd Across Ern Az Should Turn More Esewd As It Crosses Nm Later
Today/Tngt...With Continued Deepening Expected As The System Reaches W Cntrl Tx As Early Mon. This Will Induce Strengthening Of Existing Lee Cyclone Over The Srn Hi Plns Today...E And Sewd Into Cntrl Tx Early Mon.

Broad Area Of Attendant Waa Extending Downstream Across The Nrn Gulf Of Mexico/Lwr Ms Vly Should Support Eventual Nwd Movement Of Sfc Front Now Stalled Wsw-Ene Across The Nrn Gulf. Nwd Advance Of The Front Will...However...Likely Be Stymied By Increasing Coverage Of Rain/Tstms Along The Boundary Later In The Period.

Srn Plns Lt Tngt/Early Mon...

Intensifying Cold Front Associated With Nm Upr Trough...Now Moving
Ese Across Nrn/Wrn Nm...Will Sweep E Into W Tx This Eve And Overtake Existing Lee Trough. The Combined Boundary Should Continue E Across W Tx And The Tx Panhandle Tngt...With The Feature Extending From A Low Near Wichita Falls Sse Through Cntrl Tx To Near Laredo By 12z Mon. At The Same Time...Wrn End Of Boundary Now Stalled In The Nrn Gulf Of Mexico Should Become Increasingly Diffuse Over E Cntrl And E Tx Today/Tngt As Waa Strengthens Downstream From Upr Trough.

Combination Of Strong /90-120 M/ Height Falls On Leading Edge Of Nm Vort With Existing Plume Of Steep Mid-Lvl Lapse Rates Should Support Wdly Sctd Tstm Development Along The Intensifying Cold Front Late This Aftn Into The Eve From Far Wrn Ok Swd Through W Tx...Despite Sparse Moisture /Sfc Dewpoints 35-40 F/. Strength Of Shear And Strong Cooling Aloft Suggest Potential For Updraft
Organization/Sustenance...With Locally Dmgg Wind Gusts And
Marginally Svr Hail Possible. These Storms May Evolve Into A Sqln A
Bit Later Tngt Through Early Mon As The Activity Encounters Somewhat Greater Though Still Modest Moisture Return /Sfc Dewpoints In The 40s To Lwr 50s/ Spreading Nwd Through Cntrl/E Cntrl Tx. With Ample /50+ Kt/ Deep Shear Present For Storm Organization/Supercells...Svr Hail And Dmgg Wind Will Be Possible Despite Time Of Day.

Some Potential Also Will Exist For The Development Of Isold To
Perhaps Wdly Sctd Storms Well E And Se Of The Sqln /Toward The
Middle And Upr Tx Gulf Cst/ Very Late In The Period As Forcing For
Ascent Overspreads Wrn Edge Of More Substantial Moisture Return In
That Area. Attm It Appears That Such Potential Remains Quite
Conditional Given Time Of Day And Eml Capping.

Cntrl Gulf Cst Tngt/Early Mon...

Tstms Expected To Increase In Coverage/Strength Along And N Of
Frontal Zone Over The Nrn Gulf Of Mexico Beginning Late Today And
Continuing Through Tngt/Early Mon In Response To Appreciable
Strengthening/Broadening Of Waa/Moisture Transport Downstream From Amplifying Nm/Tx Trough.

Given Quality Of Moisture S Of Boundary Per Current Sfc And
Satellite-Derived Pw Data /Pw Around 1.5 Inches With Dewpoints
Around 70 F/...Coverage May Prove Sufficient To Retard Nwd/Inland
Advance Of The Front Over The Cntrl Gulf Cst Region.

Neither Satellite Nor Model Fcsts Indicate Presence Of Any
Identifiable Shortwave Impulse To Focus/Enhance Development.

Nevertheless...Strength Of Waa/Moisture Inflow Coupled With 40+ Kt
Wswly Cloud-Layer Shear Suggest Potential For Embedded
Supercells/Lewps With An Attendant Risk For Hail And Locally Dmgg
Wind From Srn La Ewd Through Srn Ms...Srn Al...The Fl Panhandle And Sw Ga.

Attm It Appears That Most Of The Storms Should Remain Slightly Elevated...Especially With Increasing Distance From The Coast.

This Factor Should Limit Degree/Extent Of Svr Threat. In Any Areas Where Maritime Boundary Does Move Ashore...However...A Conditional Risk Will Exist For Tornadoes Given 500-1000 J/Kg Mucape And 250-400 M2/S2 Srh...Especially Toward The End Of Fcst Period.


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