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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Aug 4

Nrn High Plains...

No Significant Changes Have Been Made To The Slgt Risk.

Environment Is Expected To Support Isolated Supercell Development Later This Afternoon And Evening...Possibly Assisted By A Weak Vorticity Streamer Observed In Wv Imagery Extending Enewd From Srn Id Into Sern Mt. Large Hail/Damaging Winds Will Be The Primary Severe Weather Threats.

Sern Nd...Nern Sd...W-Cntrl Mn...

Waa In The 850-700 Mb Layer Will Spread E Into The Area Later This
Evening...And Aid In Slightly Elevated Thunderstorm Development As
Mucape Values Increase To 1000-1500 J/Kg. Marginally Severe Hail
Will Be Possible Given The Presence Of Steepening Midlevel Lapse
Rates And Effective Bulk Shear Strengthening To 50+ Kt.

Ern Co/Nern Nm Ewd Into Srn Ks/Nrn Ok...

Weak Surface Wave Was Centered Over Nwrn Ok Early This
Afternoon...With A Quasi-Stationary Front Extending Wwd Across The
Tx/Ok Panhandles...Then Nwwd Into Nern Nm And Sern Co. Sewd From The Low...Front Extended Into Ern Ok And Then Se Into Cntrl Ms. Hot Well Mixed Boundary Layer Is Developing Newd Across The Srn High Plains And Toward The Area Of Low Pressure...While Cooler But Moist Airmass...With Dewpoints In The 70s...Was Located From Ern/Cntrl Ok Into Srn Ks.

Multicell Clusters Are Forecast To Spread E Across Nern Nm And The Tx/Ok Panhandles This Afternoon...And Possibly Nrn Ok And Srn Ks By This Evening. Strong Instability With Mlcape Values Up To 3000 J/Kg Combined With Steep Low-Level Lapse Rates Will Foster An
Environment Favorable For Isolated Damaging Downbursts And Perhaps Large Hail.

Ozark Plateau Sewd Into Swrn Al...

Dewpoints In The Low 70s Combined With Temperatures Warming Into The 90s Have Aided In Boosting Mlcape Values To 2000-3000 J/Kg Along A Weak Frontal Boundary Positioned From Wrn Ar Sewd Into Swrn Al.

Multicell Clusters Have Recently Developed Along The Front...And
Will Pose A Threat For Isolated Damaging Downbursts This Afternoon
Given The Presence Of A Very Unstable Environment Collocated With
High Pw Values /Near 2.0 Inches/ And Steepening Low-Level Lapse
Rates.


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