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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Aug 18

Nrn Plains This Afternoon/Evening...

Water Vapor Imagery Showed A Progressive Shortwave Trough Moving Through Ern Mt/Far Wrn Nd Early This Afternoon. Height Falls With This Feature...Although Weak...Will Spread Across Central/Ern
Nd...Nern Sd Into Mn Through This Evening. Objective Analyses
Indicated The Warm Sector Has Become Moderately Unstable /Mlcape 1500-2500 J Per Kg/...Along And E-S Of A Front Which Extended From Nern Nd Through South Central Nd To Nwrn Sd. Clouds From Earlier Convection Have Continued To Temper Surface Heating And Have Precluded A Greater Reduction In Inhibition. It/S Likely That Ascent Attendant To The Shortwave Trough Will Be Needed For Storms To Form Along The Front Late This Afternoon/Evening. Once That Occurs...Then The Available Cape/Shear Parameter Space Will Support Organized Strong To Severe Storms. Thus...No Changes Will Be Made To The Slight Risk And See Text Area In The Nrn Plains.

Ern Al To Wrn/Central Ga...

Potential Exists For Storms To Produce An Isolated Threat For Strong
Wind Gusts Into Ern Al And Wrn/Central Ga. The Low Severe Wind
Probabilities Have Been Expanded To Include More Of Ern Al And
Wrn/Central Ga.


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