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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Aug 11

Neb/Nern Co...N Cntrl Ks...

Visible Imagery Shows Towering Cu Across Ern Co...As Well As Into
Swrn Neb Where Temperatures Have Reached The Mid 80s F. With
Continued Heating...A Few Clusters Of Cells Should Form With A Large Hail And Damaging Wind Threat As They Eventually Merge And Propagate In A Sewd Direction.

Srn Va Into Nrn Nc...

Lapse Rate Profiles Are Generally Poor But Ample Instability Exists
For A Few Strong Storms. Stronger Flow Aloft/Shear Over Va May Allow
For A Core Or Two To Produce Small...Marginally Severe Hail.

Prev Discussion...

Central Plains Into Wrn Ia...

A Weak Frontal Boundary Is Analyzed From Nrn Ia Into Central Neb ...And This May Provide A Focus For Widely Scattered Storm Development By Late Afternoon As The Cap Weakens. Additional Storms May Develop From Parts Of Ern Wy/Nern Co Into The Adjacent Parts Of Neb And Nwrn Ks In Advance Of The Wy/Co Short Wave Trough Within A Weak Low Level Upslope Flow Regime. Although Winds Aloft Will Be Modest At Best /20-25 Kt At 500 Mb/...Veering Profiles And 25-35 Kt Of Effective Shear Will Be Supportive Of Organized Multicell And Possibly A Few Supercell Storm Structures. Stronger Storms Will Be Capable Of Producing Large Hail And Damaging Wind Gusts During The Late Afternoon And Evening.

Va/Nc...

The Srn Edge Of Stronger Westerly Flow Aloft Extends Across Srn Va /Far Nrn Nc Where 25-30 Kt Mid Level Winds Are Indicated By 12z Raobs And Latest Vad Profiles. Strong Heating Is Occurring Across
Nc Attm...And As Cloud Cover Diminishes Over Parts Of Central/Srn Va This Afternoon...Pockets Of Enhanced Heating/Destabilization Will
Occur As Well. Despite Surface Dew Points Remaining In The Low/ Mid 70s...Weak Low-Mid Level Lapse Rates /Generally Less Than 6c Per Km/ Will Temper Overall Instability With Maximum Mlcape Of 1000-1500 J/Kg Expected. A Few Stronger Storms Are Expected To Develop This Afternoon/Evening And Spread Ewd Across The Area With Potential To Produce Isolated Strong/Severe Wind Gusts.

Tn Valley Into The Appalachians...

A Small Mcs Is Moving Ewd Across The Mid-South And This May Spread Ewd In Association With A Weak Short Wave Trough Moving Across The Region. Based On The 12z Bna Raob...The Downstream Environment Is Expected To Continue To Destabilize This Afternoon With Mlcape Of 2000-2500 J/Kg. Minimal Vertical Shear In The Cloud-Bearing Layer Favors Development Of Weakly Organized Multicell And Pulse Storm Types With Potential For Isolated Wet Microbursts With Stronger Cells Into This Evening.

Interior Oregon/Wa To Nrn Id And Wrn Mt...

The Persistent Closed Low Over The Oregon Coast Will Move Slowly Nwd Over Wa Through Tonight...While Slowly Evolving Into More Of An Open Wave In Response To Height Falls Over The Gulf Of Ak. A Belt Of Enhanced Low-Mid Level Moisture Will Remain From Wa Ewd Over Nrn Id/Wrn Mt On The N Edge Of The Mid Level Dry Slot...Where Convection Is Again Expected To Develop This Afternoon. Mlcape Of 500-1500 J/Kg And Deep-Layer Sly Shear Of 25-35 Kt Will Support A Risk Of Isolated Large Hail Given Relatively Cool Mid Level
emperatures...As Well As A Few Strong Gusts With A Deeply-Mixed
Boundary Layer.


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