Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sun Apr 7

Western/Northern Ok And Ks To Central Mo Through Tonight...

Only Minimal Changes To Existing Convective Outlook...With Little
Fluctuation In Forecast Reasoning As Per Prior Outlook Discussion
Below.

Of Initial Concern Is Ongoing Tstm Cluster/Supercell Across
Southeast Ks Into Southwest Mo. Regarding The Source Region Airmass...The 18z Observed Sounding From Lamont Ok Is Indicative Of Considerable Moistening Within The Lowest 1 Km Since 11z...With Very Steep Mid Level Lapse Rates And Mucape Of Around 1500 J/Kg.

Otherwise...Initially High-Based Tstms Should Continue To Gradually Increase Across West-Central Ks Through Late Afternoon/Early Evening...With More Uncertain Development Progressively Farther South Across Western Ok/Far Northwest Tx.

Prev Discussion...

A Strong Midlevel Shortwave Trough With An Associated 100 Kt Jet
Streak Will Dig Sewd To Ca/Nv Through Tonight...While Gradual
Downstream Height Rises Occur Over The Lower Ms Valley And Se
States. In Between...A Series Of Low-Amplitude Speed Maxima Will
Progress From The Four Corners To The Oh Valley And Lower Great
Lakes. The Largely Wly Flow Regime Will Continue To Support Lee
Cyclogenesis Across The High Plains...As Well As Low-Level Moisture Transport Nwd Across The Srn/Central Plains.

Nw Ok/Ks To Central Mo Through Tonight...

12z Soundings And Recent Surface Analyses Confirm Ongoing Low-Level Moisture Return Into Tx/Ok/Ks From The Wrn Gulf Basin...Though Observations Suggest That Short-Term Model Forecasts May Be A Couple Degrees Too High With The Boundary Layer Dewpoints This Afternoon.

Meanwhile...The Eml Noted In The Ama/Maf Soundings Will Continue To Overspread Nw Tx And Wrn Ok...Likely Providing A Sufficient Cap To Limit Convective Initiation Prospects Along The Wrn Ok/Nw Tx Dryline And Near The Weak Surface Cyclone. The N Edge Of The Warmer Eml Resides Between Ama And Ddc...And Extrapolation Suggests That The More Probable Area For Convective Initiation This Afternoon/Evening Will Be Near And N Of The Ks/Ok Border.

Modified Forecast Soundings...Accounting For Afternoon Temps In The Low-Mid 70s With Some Clouds And Boundary Layer Dewpoints Of 58-60 F...Support Mlcape Approaching 2000 J/Kg With Only Small Cin Across Nw Ok And Adjacent Areas Of Ks. Additionally... Water Vapor Imagery Suggests The Presence Of An Embedded Speed Max Aloft Over Nrn Nm As Of Mid Morning...Which Should Reach The Nw Ok/Sw Ks Border Region By This Evening. Thus...The Expectation For At Least Isolated Thunderstorm Development Near Or N Of The Ok/Ks Border Appears Reasonable By Late Afternoon. Storms That Form In This Area Will Likely Become Supercells Given The Moderate Instability And Effective Bulk Shear Near 50 Kt...And Be Capable Of Producing Isolated Very Large Hail And Damaging Gusts. A Tornado Or Two Will Be Possible This Evening With Any Supercells On The N Side Of The Richer Low-Level Moisture And As Low-Level Shear Increases This Evening In Conjunction With A Strengthening Llj.

Otherwise...
A Nwd Increase In Moisture And The Associated Low-Level Waa Regime Should Promote The Development Of Thunderstorm Clusters By This Evening And Continue Through Tonight Across Central/Ne Ks Into Mo...With An Attendant Risk For Isolated Large Hail And Damaging Winds.


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