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Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Sep 21

Ern U.S....

Very Moist Airmass...Characterized By Pw Values In Excess Of 2
Inches...Will Be Shunted East Of The Appalachians And Suppressed
Across The Gulf States Saturday As Progressive Upper Trough Shifts
Across The Oh Valley.

While This Plume Of Very Moist Air Will Extend Nwd Across The Middle Atlantic Into Srn New England Within Favorable Ascent Region Of Upper Trough...Very Poor Lapse Rates Will Result In Shallow Weak Instability.

For This Reason Much Of The Convection That Develops Along/ Ahead Of Cold Front May Not Attain Heights Necessary For Lightning Discharge. Even So The Prospect For Severe Wind Gusts With Any Tstms Appears Negligible And Severe Probs Will Remain Below 5 Percent This Period.

Wrn U.S...

Strong Upper Trough Is Forecast To Shift Across Wrn Wa/Ore And Nrn
Ca By 22/00z As 60kt+ Mid Level Jet Translates Across The San
Joaquin Valley.

Lapse Rates Are Expected To Steepen Across Much Of The Wrn U.S. North Of This Jet And Across The Interior Basin Such That Deep Thermals Will Induce At Least Isolated Thunderstorms Across These Regions. Relatively Poor Moisture Content Should Limit Updraft Intensity And Aside From A Few Locally Strong Downbursts These Storms Should Pose Little Risk Of Meaningful Severe.


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