Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Oct 5

Upper Low In The Process Of Occluding Over The Nrn/Cntrl Plains Will Advance Slowly Ewd...Reaching The Upper Ms Valley By Saturday Night.

Attendant Occluded Front Will Extend From A Sfc Low Over Ern Sd Into
Ia Then Swwd As A Cold Front Through Mo And Nwrn Tx At The Start Of This Period. This Boundary Will Advance Slowly Ewd And Sewd... Likely Extending From The Great Lakes Swwd Through The Oh And Lower Ms Valleys To Just Off The Tx Coast By 12z Sun.

Meanwhile...Tropical Storm Karen Is Forecast To Take A Newd Turn Later Today As It Approaches The Cntrl Gulf Coast. See Latest Nhc Discussions For More Information On Karen.

Middle Ms Valley Through Midwest And Wrn Great Lakes...

Warm Front Extending Ewd Through The Great Lakes Will Lift Slowly
Nwd Saturday. In Its Wake...Rich Gulf Moisture With Mid-Upper 60s
Dewpoints Will Continue Advecting Through The Midwest And Srn Great Lakes Warm Sector Where Weak To Modest Mid-Level Lapse Rates Will Reside. Clouds And Convective Debris Associated With Ongoing Convection Should Spread Into Mostly Wrn Portions Of Warm
Sector...But Cloud Breaks May Allow Pockets Of Diabatic Warming To
Boost Mlcape To Around 1000-1500 J/Kg. Storms Are Expected To
Redevelop Along The Cold Front And In Weakly Capped Warm Sector As The Boundary Layer Destabilizes During The Day.

With Upper Low Occluding In Post-Frontal Zone...Vertical Shear In Much Of Warm Sector Will Remain Aob 35 Kt Supporting Mostly Multicell Storms.

While Overall Threat Does Not Appear Particularly Robust Due To
Weaknesses Within The Thermodynamic And Kinematic Environment ...A Few Storms May Become Capable Of Producing Mostly Isolated Strong To Damaging Wind Gusts As Low-Level Lapse Rates Steepen During The Day.

Cntrl Gulf Coastal Area...

Tropical Storm Karen Is Expected To Turn Newd Later Today Into
Tonight As It Approaches The Gulf Coast.

Karen Is Not Forecast By Nhc To Undergo Significant Strengthening Prior To Landfall Due Largely To Effects Of Vertical Shear As Cntrl U.S. Mid Latitude Trough Advances Slowly Ewd. While Some Increase In Low-Level Hodographs May Occur Later Today Over Sern La...The More Favorable Quadrant For An Isolated Tornado Threat Will Likely Remain Offshore This Period.

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