Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Oct 26

In Mid-Upper Levels...High-Amplitude Synoptic Pattern Will Persist
Through Period...With Broad Cyclonic Flow Associated With Troughing Over Ern North America And Wrn Conus Mean Ridging.

Main Upper-Air Feature Affecting Convective Potential This Period Will Be Positively Tilted Trough...Now Evident In Moisture Channel Imagery
And Available Raob Data From Wrn Ks Swwd Across Nrn Tx Panhandle To Ern Nm.

Embedded Vorticity Max...Which Has Been 500-Mb Circulation Center ...Was Moving Ewd From Nm Over Srn Panhandle Region Of Tx Trough Is Expected To Move Esewd Across Central/Srn High Plains
Today...Reaching Wrn Ok...Nw Tx And Tx Permian Basin Region By 00z.

Thereafter...As It Gets Absorbed Into Confluent Synoptic-Scale Flow Regime Aloft...Trough Will Gradually Weaken And Accelerate Esewd ...Reaching Arklatex Region And Central Tx By End Of Period.

At Sfc...Dryline Was Drawn From Nrn Coahuila Nwd Across W-Central Tx Into Central Portions South-Plains And Panhandle... Near I-27 And Just W Of Caprock. Moist Advection To Its E And Vertical Mixing To Its W Will Balance Each Other Enough To Minimize Net Dryline Movement Prior To Fropa Described Next.

Cold Front Was Drawn From Weak Low In Ddc/Gck Area Swwd Across Portions Nern/E-Central Nm. This Front Should Shift Ssewd Across Srn High Plains...Overtaking Dryline And Intersecting Developing Warm Front Over Nw Tx.

By 00z...Weak Frontal-Wave Low Should Exist Over Nw Tx...With Cold
Front Swwd Across Trans-Pecos Region. Front/Inverted Trough Will
Extend From Low Newd Into Progressively Cooler Air Mass...Including
Antecedent Rain-Cooled Air...Over Central Ok. Meanwhile Warm
Frontal Zone Will Stall Over N-Central Tx Or Red River Region E Of
Low...Its Specific Position Influenced Strongly By Clouds/Precip
Over And N Of This Area During Bulk Of Daylight Hours. Weak Sfc Low Should Shift Ewd To Esewd Across N-Central Tx Overnight... While Cold Front Proceeds Sewd Into Edwards Plateau Region.

W-Central...N-Central And Central Tx...

Widely Scattered To Scattered Tstms Should Develop Along/Ahead Of
Cold Front And Dryline This Aftn...As Well As On Both Sides Of
Diffuse Warm Front. This Will Occur In Environment Of Increasing
Buoyancy And Boundary-Layer Moisture Through Mid-Late Aftn...Along
With Stg Veering Of Winds With Height And Favorable Deep/ Cloud-Bearing Layer Shear.

Coverage Should Increase With Time Into Late Aftn/Early Evening Amidst At Least Mrglly Favorable Deep Shear...And Become Sufficient To Support Categorical Svr Risk For Parts Of This Region.

Several Reports Of Svr Hail And Damaging Wind Are Possible.

Tornado Potential Is More Conditional...Given Lack Of Substantial Near-Sfc Flow And Uncertainties Regarding Duration Of Any Supercellular Storm Modes That Do Develop.

Limiting Factors Will Include Lack Of More Robust Low-Middle Level
Lapse Rates...Restricting Overall Buoyancy...As Well As Weak Sfc
Winds That Could Hinder Convergence. Still...Patches Of Sustained
Insolation Will Aid In Removing Mlcinh And...With Sfc Dew Points
Commonly Mid-50s To Low-60s F...Boosting Prefrontal/Preconvective
Mlcape Into 1000-1500 J/Kg Range.

Unconditional Svr Potential Becomes More Uncertain With Nwd Extent To Srn Ok...Though Isolated Svr Hail Cannot Be Ruled Out.

Meanwhile...Aftn/Early Evening Tstms Over N Tx May Evolve Into At Least Loosely Organized Band Or Mcs And Move Sewd Over Central Tx Late Evening...Offering Stg-Damaging Gusts And Isolated Hail Near Svr Levels At First. However...Svr Threat Should Become More Mrgl/Conditional As Foregoing Near-Sfc Parcels Cool Diabatically.


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