Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Oct 19

Shortwave Impulses Will Move Through A Broad Area Of Mid/ Upper-Level Cyclonic Flow Covering Much Of The Conus.

At The Sfc...A Cold Front Will Move Off The Lower Tx Coast This Morning While Shifting Sewd Across The Gulf Of Mexico. The Same Front Will Initially Extend Newd From The Ern Gulf Coast To Coastal Nc...And This Frontal Segment Will Be Slower To Progress Off The Atlantic Coast. However...After 00z...The Front Will Be Overtaken By A Surge Of Cool/Continental Air Attendant To An Impulse Quickly Advancing From The Middle Ms Valley To New England.

In Turn...Moist And Marginally Unstable Air On The Warm Side Of The Boundary Will Become Increasingly Confined Over Inland Areas And Support Isolated Storms Across Parts Of The Sern States And The Lower Rio Grande Valley Of Tx. Poor Tropospheric Lapse Rates And Weak Low-Level Flow Render No Severe Probabilities.

Cold Mid-Level Conditions Accompanying The Aforementioned Impulse /E.G. H5 Temperatures More Negative Than -30c/ Will Glance The Great Lakes Region. This Will Enhance Convective Boundary Layer Growth Atop The Relatively Warmer Waters Of The Great Lakes To Support Scattered Showers. Forecast Soundings Suggest That Narrow Cape Layers May Extend Marginally Deep Enough Into Icing Layers Aloft To Support A Few Very Isolated Lightning Strikes. Thunderstorm Coverage Is Expected To Remain Sufficiently Low To Preclude General Thunderstorm Areas.

Also...Dcva Preceding The Impulse May Encourage The Development Of Small...Low-Topped Convective Bands From The Cntrl/Nrn Appalachians To New England. Buoyancy Is Forecast To Be Too Limited For General Thunderstorm Delineation.

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