Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat May 4

Atypical Synoptic Pattern Will Continue To Render Negligible Severe
Potential Across Much Of The Conus. The Lone Exception May Be Along The Nern Fl Coast. Elsewhere...Isolated Tstms Are Expected In Parts Of The West And Upper Ms Valley...Primarily This Afternoon /Evening.

Nern Fl Coast...

Surface Low Over E-Cntrl Fl Should Begin To Advance Nwd Late This
Afternoon Into Tonight As A Lobe Of Stronger Forced Ascent /Associated With A Slow-Moving Closed Low Over The Ozark Plateau/
Gradually Shifts Ewd Across The Southeast.

Enhanced Low-Level E/Selys Should Remain Prevalent N Of The Low Maintaining Moisture Transport Inland. Unlike Prior Days Where Abundant Stratiform Rainfall Minimized Diabatic Surface Heating... Potential For Greater Insolation Could Yield Surface Temperatures Warming Through The 70s And A Modestly Unstable Air Mass With Mlcape Around 1000 J/Kg.

With Hodographs Expected To Be Elongated Owing To The Presence Of The Ely Low-Level Component And Some Increase In Mid-Level Wlys With Approach Of The Upstream Low...Setup Would Conditionally Favor A Supercell Or Two. Nevertheless...00z Convection-Allowing Model Guidance Simulate That Rotating Updrafts Would Largely Remain Offshore This Afternoon/Evening.


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