Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat May 25

Synoptic Pattern Will Undergo Little Change Saturday With An Upper
Ridge Over The Cntrl U.S. Flanked By Troughs Over The Wrn And Ern
States. At The Sfc A Lee Trough/Dryline Will Persist Over The High
Plains While A Warm Front Lifts Slowly Nwd Through The Cntrl/Nrn

Cntrl And Nrn Plains Area...

Sely Winds East Of Lee Trough Will Advect Upper 50s Dewpoints Into
The Nrn High Plains With Low-Mid 60s Farther South Over The Cntrl
Plains. Meanwhile...Wswly Winds Aloft Will Advect Steep Mid-Level
Lapse Rates Above The Moistening Boundary Layer Contributing To An Axis Of 1500-2500 J/Kg Mlcape. The Atmosphere Will Remain Capped To Surface Based Storms Until Mid Afternoon When Diabatic Warming Will Augment Orographic Forcing Where A Moist Sely Upslope Regime Will Exist From Nern Co...Ern Wy Into Ern Mt.

Storms Are Expected To Develop Over The Higher Terrain And Subsequently Spread Ewd Into The Axis Of Moderate Instability Across The High Plains. This Region Will Reside On Srn Fringe Of Stronger Flow Aloft With 35-40 Kt Winds At 500 Mb Above Sely Near Sfc Winds Resulting In Favorable Vertical Shear For Supercells. Very Large Hail Will Be The Initial Primary Threat...Through Isolated Tornadoes May Also Be Possible.

A Few Storms May Eventually Congeal Into Lines/Clusters With An Increasing Damaging Wind Threat During The Evening...Sustained By A Strengthening Sly Llj. Severe Threat Is Expected To Gradually Wane Toward Late Evening.

Srn High Plains...

Isolated To Widely Scattered Storms Are Expected To Once Again
Develop Over The Higher Terrain And Spread Ewd Into The Srn High
Plains. These Storms Will Exist In A Weak Shear Environment...But
Steep Lapse Rates...Moderate Instability And 25+ F Low Level
Temperature-Dewpoint Spreads Will Support A Threat For Isolated
Large Hail And Downburst Winds.

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