Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat May 11

Mid-Atlantic...

Deep Layer Flow Will Increase Along The Eastern Seaboard Today As
Mid And Upper Level Height Falls Occur Ahead Of Ewd Advancing
Central U.S. Trough. A Corridor Of Enhanced Midlevel Winds Are Forecast From Nrn Ga E/Ne Into The Southern Chesapeake During The Afternoon.

At The Sfc...A Lee Trough Will Extend Swd From Srn Quebec Low Into The Nc Piedmont/Ne Sc...While The Synoptic Cold Front Trails Further To The West Across Wrn Pa/Ny Into The Oh And Lower Ms Valleys At Midday.

Dewpoints In The Upper 50s To Mid 60s Are Expected In The Warm Sector East Of The Appalachians. While Early Cloud Cover May Limit Destabilization...Thinning/Broken Cloudiness Is Expected By Afternoon. As Temperatures Warm Into The Upper 70s To Mid 80s From The Srn Chesapeake Swd Across The Ern Carolinas... Modest Destabilization Is Expected To Occur.

A Vort Max Is Progged To Eject Newd Across The Mid-Atlantic... Providing Focus For Deep Layer Forcing For Ascent...And Widespread Thunderstorms Are Expected Across The Slight Risk Area. Steepening Midlevel Lapse Rates Will Support At Least Low End Severe Hail In A Modestly Unstable Environment /Sbcape 1000-1500 J Per Kg/. Nearly Unidirectional Vertical Shear...Increasing With Height...Also Will Support Strong Wind Gusts With Downbursts Possible.

Srn Ga/Nrn And Ern Fl...

Further South Toward Srn Ga And Nrn/Ern Fl...Cloud Cover Will Also
Inhibit Destabilization Somewhat. However...Deterministic And Hi-Res
Model Guidance Suggest Either A Southern Stream Impulse Ejecting
From Mexican Upper Trough Or An Mcv From Ongoing Morning Convection Across Srn La...Will Track E/Ne Near The Gulf Coast Into Srn Ga/Nrn Fl By Afternoon. Should This Feature Exist Across The Region... Forcing For Ascent Could Be Enhanced As Low Level Convergence Increases As Sea Breeze Moves Inland. Steepening Lapse Rates With Cold Temps Aloft Would Support Some Hail And Downburst Winds.

Uncertainty In The Evolution And/Or Location Of The Srn Stream
Impulse/Mcv Will Preclude An Upgrade To Slight Risk At This Time... But May Be Needed In Subsequent Outlooks.

S Tx...

Moist Low Level Upslope/Nely Flow Behind Early Morning Cold Frontal Passage Will Support At Least Small Potential For Thunderstorms. Cloud Cover May Limit Destabilization...But Steep Lapse Rates Could Support A Marginal Wind/Hail Threat Given Storm Development.


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