Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Mar 9

Morning Water Vapor Loops Show A Deep Upper Trough Over The Western States...With The Main Low Center Over Northern Nm. The Trough Will Track Eastward Into The Plains Today...Providing Large Scale Support For Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms From Neb/Ia Southward Into Tx/La. The Primary Severe Threat Will Be Across Parts Of Tx/Ok And Extreme Western Ar...Mainly Late This Afternoon And Evening.

Tx/Ok/Western Ar...

Latest Surface Observations Show The Pacific Front Extending Roughly Along The Tx/Nm Border. Strong Southerly Low Level Winds Ahead Of The Front Have Helped To Moisten The Boundary Layer Across Parts Of Ok/Tx Where Mid-Upper 50s Dewpoints Are Common. Low Clouds Will Be Rather Widespread Across This Region Through Most Of The Day...Limiting Daytime Heating And Destabilization. Nevertheless...Cooling Temperatures Aloft Will Help To Yield Afternoon Mlcape Values Of 500-1000 J/Kg.

Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms That Are Ongoing This Morning Will Spread Eastward Across Southern Ks And Much Of Ok...But Should Remain Below Severe Limits.

More Intense Convection Is Expected To Develop By Mid-Late Afternoon Along/Ahead Of The Pacific Front As It Tracks Into Central Tx/Ok. Low Level And Deep Layer Vertical Shear Across The Slight Risk Area Will Be Favorable For Organized Storm Structures Including Supercells And Bow Structures. The Main Limiting Factor For A More Widespread Severe Event Will Be Weak Cape And Rather Weak Low Level Lapse Rates. The Stronger Storms In This Region Will Be Capable Of Hail And Damaging Winds Through The Evening As They Spread Eastward Into East Tx/Ok And Possibly Into Western Ar.

An Isolated Tornado Cannot Be Ruled Out Over Southeast Ok And Northeast Tx Where It Appears The Greatest Overlap Of Favorable Shear And Instability Will Occur.


Farther North...Most Model Solutions Including The Sseo Suggest A
Small Cluster Of Strong Thunderstorms Are Possible This Afternoon
Over Parts Of North-Central Ks And South-Central Neb. This Area May
See More Daytime Heating Than Farther South As The Mid Level Dry
Slot Overspreads The Region. Rather Steep Low And Mid Level Lapse Rates...Combined With Sufficient Cape And Favorable Effective
Shear...Will Pose A Risk Of Hail And Gusty Winds In The Stronger

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