Severe Weather Threat Day 1 Sat Mar 30

Downstream Of The Eastern Pacific Block...The Split Mid-Latitude
Westerlies Converge Across The Intermountain West And Rockies.

East Of The Rockies...The Southern Stream Has Become
Suppressed...Extending In A Northwesterly Belt Across The Southern
Plains Into The Gulf Of Mexico And Florida Peninsula...While The
More Prominent Northern Branch Curves In A Broad Cyclonic Belt
Across The Canadian Prairies And Northern U.S. Plains Through Much Of The Atlantic Seaboard.

Troughing Within This Latter Stream Is Expected To Amplify Substantially Across The Upper Half Of The Mississippi Valley During This Period...As A Strong Short Wave Trough Digs To The South And West Of The Hudson/James Bay Region. Guidance Is Suggestive That This Will Be Accompanied By Another Significant Cold Intrusion ...Which May Nose Into The Northern Plains And Upper Midwest By 12z Sunday.

In Advance Of This Front...Low-Level Flow Is Already Beginning To
Turn From Westerly To Northerly Across The Northern Into Central
Plains. However...A More Rapid Southeastward Progression Of This
Wind Shift Is Not Expected Until Later Tonight. And Lingering
Low-Level Moisture Along And Ahead Of It...Beneath Residual Steep
Mid-Level Lapse Rates...Appears To Maintain A Risk For Strong/Severe Storm Development Across Parts Of The Central And Southern Plains Today Into Tonight.

Central/Southern Plains...

The Remnants Of Overnight Convective Development Are Expected To
Continue To Weaken Early Today...While Shifting Into The Lower
Mississippi Valley With Large-Scale Forcing Associated With A Couple Of Short Wave Impulses Progressing East Of The Plains. In The Wake Of This Activity...Daytime Heating Of Mid 50s To Near 60f Surface Dew Points Appears Likely To Contribute Mixed Layer Cape In Excess Of 1000 J/Kg...Perhaps Locally As High As 2000 J/Kg...Across Much Of Northern Texas And Oklahoma Into Parts Of Eastern Kansas.

However...Guidance Is Suggestive That Mid/Upper Subsidence Impacting Much Of This Region Through The Day Probably Will Inhibit New Convective Development. Even So...With Capping Relatively Weak To The North Of A Quasi-Stationary Lower/Mid Tropospheric Baroclinic Zone Extending Across The Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Region Through The Red River Valley...At Least Widely Scattered Late Afternoon Storms Appear Possible. In The Presence Of Favorable Deep Layer Shear For Mid-Level Updraft Rotation...Stronger Storms Likely Will Be Capable Of Produce Large Hail.

An Increase In Large-Scale Forcing For Upward Vertical Motion Later
This Evening Or Overnight May Result In More Substantive Convective
Development Across Parts Of The Southern Plains...Particularly Near
The Edge Of Stronger Capping In The Vicinity Of The Red River.

The Extent Of Any Associated Severe Weather Threat Will Probably Depend Largely On Timing With Respect To The Onset Of Boundary Layer Cooling And Stabilization...Which Remains Unclear At This Time.


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